Confidence in region at highest since 2019 with firms ‘ready to grow’ but Brexit remains an issue
BUSINESS confidence is at its highest since before the last General Election, according to new data from East Midlands Chamber.
Its latest quarterly economic survey suggests more than half of local business leaders expect their turnover to improve over the coming year, with a third anticipating a rise in profits.
However Brexit has impacted on overseas traders, it suggests.
Some 540 businesses in Derbyshire, Leicestershire and Nottinghamshire – the most yet – took part in the survey between February 15 and March 8.
It was published as stage two of the Government’s roadmap out of lockdown commences with the reopening of hospitality, nonessential retail and personal care businesses.
Chris Hobson, the chamber’s director of policy and external affairs, said: “The survey data suggests businesses are ready to grow and support the wider economic recovery the country now needs.
“Sentiment among businesses is as strong as it has been since summer 2019, supported by the successful vaccine rollout programme, a roadmap for reopening the economy and a broadly positive response to the spring Budget,” he said.
“As stage two of the roadmap begins, this research highlights that businesses are ready to take advantage of the opportunities this will bring as we edge towards a fully open and functioning economy, anchored by an anticipated pent-up consumer demand.”
The survey suggested East Midlands businesses also felt more confident about investing in people and equipment in a postpandemic world.
Around a third expect their workforce to grow, while 7% expect reductions in workforce over the next quarter.
Despite these positive signs, cashflow – which worsened for the majority of firms in each quarter of 2020 – remained a problem for a significant number of businesses, while the impact of Brexit was also being felt by East Midlands overseas traders.
A third of respondents saw overseas sales worsen over the quarter – compared to a quarter which reported an improvement – with four in 10 witnessing a drop in EU activity.
Mr Hobson said: “Although this was partly offset by stronger performance in other markets – particularly in North America and Asia – the EU remains the East Midlands’ most significant trading partner. So the extent to which businesses are able to continue moving up the learning curve for the new way of trading – or in fact whether some of the problems are structural and irreversible – will be of great importance to future prospects.
“Others are still seeing increased costs associated with the continued friction experienced following the end of the UK’s transition period with the EU.
“To what extent these pressures can be incorporated into refined business models, versus how much is passed on to customers, will be of great interest to those involved in setting monetary policy.”
Although individual experiences will be mixed, particularly in the worst-affected sectors, Mr Hobson said the survey results provided “much cause for optimism”.
He said: “Over the past 12 months, many businesses have looked at their operating models, markets, processes and products, and have sought to position themselves to succeed as restrictions are lifted.
“New ways of working initially forced upon businesses by the pandemic have brought forward some opportunities for efficiencies and greater opportunities to collaborate. “The ultimate success of this activity will be put the test over the coming months as the economy reopens. This set of results suggests that businesses are up for the challenge.”
This set of results suggests that businesses are up for the challenge.
Chris Hobson