Lower expectations may work out well for Albion
THEY say it is the hope that kills you but, arguably, the uncertainty is worse.
Just over three weeks from the start of the season, Burton Albion fans really do not know what to expect – and the contrast between the situation last season and the situation this time around is stark.
Last time, the Pirelli Stadium was a hive of activity with a stack of comings and goings in the playing staff and everyone buzzing for what might happen next after the most thrilling second half of the season and the “Great Escape.”
This time, there has been one arrival, so far, and many supporters were underwhelmed by the football they saw last season.
While captain John Brayford has signed a new deal, popular midfielder Joe Powell has not and rumours abound that clubs are sniffing around some of the Brewers’ assets, notably Tom Hamer and Jonny Smith.
Amidst this uncertainty, it is nothing new that the bookies do not see Burton achieving a great deal in the season to come. The bookies always set their figures by the perceived size and fame of clubs, so, for example, no matter how many times they under-achieve, Ipswich Town are always among the favourites.
Several pundits who have broken cover so far are predicting Burton for the drop. When the League One reporters put all of their predictions together last season, only one suggested the Brewers might go down.
When we do so this season, in a couple of weeks, I will not be surprised if several more make that prediction.
And yet… perhaps this will be no bad thing. Perhaps this will turn out to be the dose of reality we all need.
Harking back again to last summer, expectations were through the roof.
Survival had been achieved, signings had been made. Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink had made just as many signings in the summer as he had in the previous January and no-one minded the astonishingly high turnover because, against the odds, he had got them all gelled and on the same page inside a fortnight in the January.
It was promotion form from that January onwards, dipping only a little once survival had been achieved.
Thus, there was much talk of a promotion challenge to come as the team “kicked on” with the momentum of their finish.
The first three matches did nothing to dispel that.
A 1-0 win away to Shrewsbury Town on the opening day fitted right on to the survival season template: nick a goal and keep the opposition efficiently at bay while looking to nick another.
A 2-1 win over Ipswich Town was the Brewers’ first over the Tractor Boys, achieved with the added satisfaction of Ben Garratt saving a penalty from former Burton hero Scott Fraser.
Then, a 1-0 win over Sunderland, secured by Jonny Smith’s goal of the season, had fans in dream land.
If expectations were not through the roof before, they were at the end of that thrilling 90 minutes.
Yet all is never quite as it seems and fine margins work both ways. Another day, Fraser would not have missed that penalty. He does not miss many.
Another day, Sunderland’s stoppage time equaliser in that game would not have been disallowed in a game which raced from end to end, nothing between the sides.
Next time out, Tom Hamer scored two own goals and the other goal could have gone down as one against Conor Shaughnessy, while Tom O’Connor limped off injured in a deflating 3-0 defeat away to Cambridge United. As reality checks go, it was emphatic and, arguably, things were never quite the same after that.
Fast forward to this summer and things are very different.
Hasselbaink has incurred the displeasure of supporters by daring to talk to Barnsley, although he recognised a poisoned chalice when he saw one and turned them down.
Quite clearly, there is cloth to be cut with regard to the squad and there were never going to be as many comings and goings as in the previous thrill-a-minute windows Hasselbaink has been involved in.
If the end result is quality rather than quantity this time, that will be a good thing.
The lack of news regarding Powell is irritating and yet perfectly understandable from the player’s point of view.
Since he is now out of contract, it is reasonable to assume his agent turned down the first new offer made by the Brewers.
That said, it is not without precedent for a player to go away, look at what else is out there, then come back and sign. Jacques Maghoma and Tom Flanagan both did that in years gone by, while Jake Buxton also kept Nigel Clough waiting for a decision the first time he joined the club. It’s the way of the world.
What it all adds up to, as we await the metaphorical puffs of smoke signalling news from the Pirelli Stadium, is that, this time, no supporter will be going into the season with their expectations through the roof.
No-one will expect a promotion charge this time.
It might just be a good thing. Burton Albion got where they are today, slowly but surely, by going under the radar. Is it such a bad thing if they do that again now?
Any success in those circumstances would be a pleasant surprise.
The lack of news regarding Powell is irritating and yet understandable from the player’s point of view