Payroll growth drives UK economic recovery
ONS DATA SHOWS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FALLS TO 4.7 PER CENT
THE number of employees on British company payrolls has moved closer to pre-pandemic levels and pay growth hit a record high, albeit distorted by the effects of coronavirus lockdowns, official data showed on Tuesday (17).
As Britain’s economy extends its recovery from last year’s slump, payrolls rose by 182,000 in July to 28.9 million – 201,000 below the level before the Covid-19 pandemic hit.
The Office for National Statistics also said the headline unemployment rate fell to 4.7 per cent in the three months to June, its lowest since the three months to August 2020.
The figures are likely to bolster Bank of England officials’ confidence that the economy will emerge from the pandemic with less long-term damage than first feared by many forecasters.
Hours worked in a week surpassed the one billion mark for the first time since the pandemic began, the ONS said and added there was no sign of a surge in redundancies before the expiry of the furlough programme at the end of September.
At its peak, in May 2020, the scheme paid the wages on 8.9 million jobs.
“There could still be bumps in the road, but the data is promising,” chancellor Rishi Sunak said.
The Bank of England believes unemployment has peaked and no longer expects a jump when the furlough scheme ends.
Vacancies in the three months to July hit a record high of 953,000,
up by 168,000 on their pre-pandemic level, the ONS said. Many employers have said they are struggling to find staff as the economy emerges from lockdowns.
The ONS said average weekly earnings in the three months to the end of June rose by 8.8 per cent compared with a year earlier
– the highest reading since records started 20 years ago, but skewed upwards by the effects of the pandemic.
More people on low wages lost their jobs than people who are better paid.
The average weekly earning
figures for the May-July period, due to be published next month, are used in the “triple lock” process for deciding the increase in the value of state pensions.
Sunak has suggested he will not automatically follow that process this year.
Underlying total pay could be rising at between 4.9 per cent and 6.3 per cent a year, the ONS said, noting uncertainties about how the estimates were reached.
On the strength of the labour market report, JPMorgan expects the BoE interest rate to increase for the first time since 2018.