Pakistan ‘has won’ Afghanistan war
SPEAKERS AT FT WEEKEND FESTIVAL FOCUSED ON TALIBAN TAKEOVER AND IMPACT ON THE REGION
AFGHANISTAN was the most important subject of discussion at the FT
Weekend Festival last Saturday (4), with the consensus that Pakistan had emerged as the winner and India the loser as a result of the return of the Taliban.
When senior journalists at the Financial Times, led by the editor Roula Khalaf, discussed the line to take in a leader comment, columnist Sarah O’Connor spelt it out: “Pakistan has won this war.”
There were reports that the chief of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, had arrived in Kabul, accompanied by a delegation of senior Pakistani officials.
FT readers are delighted that the festival – the best thing of its kind – is back in the grounds of Kenwood House after being forced to go digital last year because of the pandemic. This year it was hybrid, with many people travelling to the north London venue, while others followed the discussions live online at home.
During one session, “New world disorder”, the Turkish-British novelist Elif Shafak put it very well when she said: “We have to understand this is very grave – what happens in Afghanistan does not stay in Afghanistan.”
In Eastern Eye two weeks ago, Neil Basu, assistant commissioner at Scotland Yard, had predicted that the victory of the Taliban might inspire lone wolfs attacks in Britain and elsewhere in Europe, and that Afghanistan will again become a base for terrorism within two years.
Shafak made sense when she said: “What’s happening has huge impact on India, on Pakistan, on Turkey, and via Turkey, on right-wing politics across Europe; everything is interconnected. And it really breaks my heart that women and minorities are always regarded as the casualties.”
On the panel was the BBC’s World News presenter Yalda Hakim, who was born in Kabul and whose family fled during the Soviet–Afghan War when she was six months old.
She said, “From the perspective of the Afghans, there was a lot of anger directed towards Pakistan. There were accusations against Pakistan’s military establishment – that they were perhaps harbouring and providing financing to the Taliban, and they’ve very much been behind the support of the Taliban coming back into power – (that) were never really addressed.
“There was a vague attempt by the (former US president Donald) Trump administration to address those issues, but it was never really implemented properly.
“The relationship between the United States and Pakistan has always been a tricky one. Billions of dollars have been given in dealing with the war on terror, but the results have been very minimal. So I imagine they will be very close allies of the Taliban in this phase.”
Nader Mousavizadeh, Macro Advisory Partners’ founding partner and CEO – his firm sponsors the FT Festival – agreed with those who hold the US “accountable for the form of exit” from Afghanistan.
He added: “But let’s make sure we hold a number of other actors accountable. Let’s hold Pakistan accountable for the Taliban itself. Let’s hold a bunch of actors within the country accountable. Let’s hold the Russians and the Chinese (accountable) for what is now being celebrated as a great strategic victory...
“I just want to emphasise I think it’s extremely unlikely that the United States would have gone into Afghanistan in the first place, and certainly stayed for 20 years, were it not for the fact that the attacks of 9/11 originated from that country.”
His thesis is that the US wanted to get out of Afghanistan so it could focus on the east. It has looked at the world and analysed that the real competition is posed not by Russia – “it is China”.
Mousavizadeh did not think India’s relationship with Afghanistan “is going to be quite so damaged” by the US withdrawal as most commentators are suggesting.
“I don’t think Indians are terribly surprised either by (the Taliban victory in) Afghanistan or finding the US eventually was leaving,” he said. UK foreign secretary Dominic Raab was in Pakistan last weekend. He offered £30 million to Afghanistan’s neighbours, including Pakistan, to help process refugees entitled to come to the UK. The ISI might be happy with a Taliban victory, but Pakistani civil society will not want Afghanistan’s violent politics spilling over across the border. Afghan refugees streaming across the border is not in Pakistan’s interest. Many years ago, I went to the Pakistan-Afghan border near Landi Kotal with Margaret Thatcher.
“Denis, do be careful,” she called out to her husband, “it’s Afghanistan down there!”
This was when the Soviets had invaded Afghanistan. There was a moment of anti-climax when a lone Afghan soldier came to the border
and said affably: “Welcome to Afghanistan.”
But the Russians finally left, as have the Americans and the Brits.