Inside the big WB drama of 2020
How the studio broke the internet with the plan to release all of its 2021 films simultaneously in cinemas and on streaming
AND THERE WAS us thinking Godzilla Vs. Kong would be cinema’s bloodiest battle in 2021. In early December, Warner Bros. shocked the film world by announcing that all of its upcoming blockbusters — a slate that includes The Matrix 4 and Dune, as well as the King of the Monsters’ impending showdown with Skull Island’s resident über-ape — would be released simultaneously in cinemas and on US streaming service HBO Max. The resulting drama was enough to make Kong himself blush. AMC, the US cinema chain which owns Odeon, confirmed, “We have already commenced an immediate and urgent dialogue with the leadership of Warner.”
Reports surfaced that many of those involved in the movies heading to HBO Max were given little advance warning, with The New York Times claiming major agencies and talent management companies were given roughly 90 minutes’ notice of the move before it was announced publicly.
Those reports were followed swiftly by those of upset A-listers: namely film stars and directors who had expected their films to play in cinemas. Enter Christopher Nolan: and while the Tenet director’s movies may be thrillingly riddlesome, there was nothing ambiguous about the statement he issued within days of the announcement. “Some of our industry’s biggest filmmakers and most important movie stars went to bed the night before thinking they were working for the greatest movie studio and woke up to find out they were working for the worst streaming service,” it read. “Warner Bros. had an incredible machine for getting a filmmaker’s work out everywhere, both in theaters and in the home, and they are dismantling it as we speak.” Warner’s move is an “evolution of something we’ve been seeing happen since long before the pandemic,” says Delphine Lievens, senior box office analyst at Gower Street Analytics. “Even before the pandemic, there’s been this gradual experimentation with the theatrical window.
Then when the pandemic struck, Universal put Fantasy Island, The Hunt, Emma and films like that out to rent early and Disney put Mulan straight to Disney+. Warner aren’t the first to make this kind of move: what’s generated so much noise is the fact they’re saying this is the plan for the whole of 2021. For Warner Bros., the move’s a way of beginning to recoup the huge amounts of money spent producing these movies, Lievens explains. “They’ve clearly gone: ‘Well, we need to start releasing these films at some point.’”
Among all the uncertainty and fallout, there’s been little clarity on what it all means for UK audiences, where HBO Max is unlikely to be launching any time soon (in 2019, the US network extended their long-term deal with Sky for the exclusive broadcast rights to all HBO content). Will movies like The Suicide Squad and The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It be available exclusively in British cinemas? Or will Warner make titles available to rent on Sky Store around the same time as their theatrical release, as rumoured? And if it’s the latter, will UK cinemas be able to survive without so many of the blockbusters they were depending on as they bid to recover from a disastrous 2020, in which attendance was down 75 per cent?
UK cinemas, unfortunately, don’t yet have these answers. “It feels like we’re trying to drive a car in the dark with no headlights,” an exec at a UK cinema chain tells Empire. “In the US, there’s talk of cinemas boycotting movies that aren’t honouring the exclusive theatrical window. Whether that’s just a bargaining chip and something chains will seriously pursue, I don’t know. Can cinemas really afford not to show The Matrix 4 — even with a giant chunk of fans of that movie opting to watch it at home?”
There were signs that Warner Bros. might be planning such a move: in November, it was announced that Wonder Woman 1984 would be released on HBO Max at the same time as in cinemas. It was the fact that Warner Bros. were committing an entire year’s worth of movies to the streaming platform that surprised cinemas. “It blindsided our entire industry. No-one has been able to answer our questions about where this leaves UK cinemas, and all our customers who want to see The Suicide Squad on a giant screen,” says the cinema worker. “[And] why, a week before we get a vaccine, are decisions being made that keep movies out of cinemas a year from now?”
Vaccinations in the UK will initially only be rolled out to the most vulnerable, with socialdistancing measures likely to pose challenges to cinemas until the full population has received the jab (a process that could take over a year). Their point is that with a large percentage of Britain expected to be vaccinated by next winter, committing late 2021 releases like The Matrix 4 and Dune to streaming feels premature. Some industry figures, however, have suggested the move has as much to do with bolstering HBO Max as protecting public health. “Warner are nurturing a new product in HBO Max,” Lievens says of the streaming service, which launched Stateside in May but had accrued
only 12.7 million active users by October. (Disney+, by comparison, signed up ten million subscribers in its first day.) “This [move] is only going to benefit it. If they can drive revenue to another part of the business, especially one that’s underperforming, that’s what they’ll want to do.”
“We’re living in unprecedented times which call for creative solutions,” Warnermedia CEO Ann Sarnoff said when Warner’s announcement was made, emphasising that “no-one wants films back on the big screen more than we do.” Lievens points out that Warner could have chosen to stream these movies exclusively on HBO Max as Disney did with Mulan and Disney+, a move that would have been “far more detrimental to the cinema industry”. Key Warner filmmakers, including Wonder Woman 1984’s Patty Jenkins, have been keen to emphasise the move as one made out of Covid-induced necessity, rather than desire to disrupt the theatrical model permanently (“I never thought I’d [take] streaming over theatrical and I’m going to go back to my old ways down the road. But this is a special year,” she told io9).
Many worry, though, that the decision will set a precedent that will be difficult to row back from, leaving cinemas with few exclusive movies in 2021. “All eyes are now on Fox [now owned by Disney], Sony and Paramount, basically,” says Lievens. How they respond is likely to be influenced by what happens in future deals between Warners and the stars and filmmakers behind the films losing their theatrical exclusivity. According to The Hollywood Reporter, Warner Bros. ‘compensated’ Gal Gadot for lost profit share in Wonder Woman 1984’s cinema release. The result is rumours of stars and directors’ agents now demanding similar packages from the studio, which won’t come cheap.
Where does this leave the UK, though? “HBO Max is only available in the US,” says a Warner Bros. pictures spokesperson in a statement to Empire. “Our plan is for all Warner Bros. films to launch theatrically in the UK and Ireland, along with other worldwide territories.” But, says Leivens, that doesn’t necessarily mean business as usual for us, given continuing Covid restrictions. “I very much doubt we’re going to see a normal release pattern in the UK, especially given we have this tiered system now. If that’s kept up into the new year, there’ll be large chunks of the country where cinemas can’t open. My guess is that it’ll either be on Sky Cinema earlier than it’d normally be, after four to eight weeks, or it’ll be on Sky Store a week or so after [theatrical release]. They’ll want to make things as available as possible to maximise income.”
One thing’s for sure — at home and abroad, the implications of the HBO Max deal could be seismic, changing not just how films are seen, but what the future of films looks like.
“Blockbusters with big budgets came about under the old model of studios feeling they need to entice people out of their homes and into cinemas with unmissable spectacles,” says Lievens. “Under the sort of model [the HBO Max deal] might lead us towards, a film like [romcom] Happiest Season, that wouldn’t have been a big cinema draw, all of a sudden has as much worth as an expensive superhero movie to a studio.” In other words, if other studios follow Warner’s suit, we may see fewer blockbusters and more mid-level movies. But that’s getting ahead of ourselves. In the meantime, there are still plenty of punches to be landed in the fight over HBO Max. And overall, the thing we’re all fighting for: a bright future for film.