Keeping one union while leaving another
THE PRIME Minister’s charm offensive in Scotland today is part of a general strategy to shore up the union of the UK prior to leaving the union of the EU. She faces an uphill task charming the SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon. Tomorrow the Scottish Parliament will almost certainly pass a vote approving a new independence referendum: the SNP’s preferred date is autumn 2018, or the following spring. The fact that the outcome of the vote is theoretical — it is not in the Scottish Parliament’s gift to approve a referendum or its timing — does not take away from the SNP message that Brexit has changed the debate.
Mrs May can be reasonably confident that Scottish voters are not more inclined to back independence now than in the last referendum; arguably, it’s even more in Scotland’s interest to stay inside the UK post-Brexit, given the uncertainties about an independent Scotland’s relationship with the EU. But undeniably, unrest in Scotland complicates the situation. The PM talks about greater powers for the devolved governments, but this falls far short of the SNP’s aspirations and even of Gordon Brown’s suggestion of a federal government for the UK.
Mrs May began her visit in the department for international development, to make the point that “when this great union of nations sets its mind on something and works together with determination, we are an unstoppable force”. It is unfortunate timing that the Northern Irish part of the union is in turmoil just now: it may be necessary for Westminster to reinstate direct rule after Sinn Fein’s refusal to co-operate with power-sharing arrangements. Rather more serious is the prospect that Brexit may entail a hard border with the south; something neither the Irish nor UK governments want.
But the big, symbolic event this week is on Wednesday when Mrs May triggers Article 50. That will mark the end of the phoney war, or at least the talk about talks, and will finally allow official negotiations with the EU to begin. It will be a traumatic moment for Europhiles but for others it will come as a relief. At last, serious talking can start.