Pep has fallen well short of expectations, only his reputation is saving him

PEP GUARDIOLA is just about the only manager in the world who could avoid the sack at Manchester City if they finish outside the top four and fail to win a trophy.

That would be a disaster for a club which spent about £175million last summer, having lifted the League Cup and qualified for the Champions League before getting rid of Manuel Pellegrini.

Instead of challenging for the title straight away, as most people assumed City would because of Guardiola’s impact, they are scrambling to make the top four — and that is why tonight’s Manchester derby is bigger for them than it is for United.

Jose Mourinho can still reach the Championsp League by winning the Europa League and I can understand why he thinks tthat’s their best shot. United have ggot a horrendous runinin and that’s wwhat I think will kill them, but they have a safety net of a Europa LeagueLeagu semi-final that City don’t.

MourinhMourinho has also won the League CuCup already and he can hold that up as a sign of proprogress whereas SuSunday’s FA Cup semififinal defeat against AArsenal means it is all oon the line in the PPremier League for Guardiola.

The system Guardiola (left) is pplaying doesn’t suit somsome of his players and so you’d expect he’s going to get rid ofo a few in the summer,summe but only his reputationreputat buys him that time.

Of course,cou if you have GuardioGuardiola’s CV, then any board wwould think twice about firfiring him, but that shouldnshouldn’t hide the fact they have fallefallen well short of expectatioexpectations this season.

City haven’thaven improved. They’ve looked good at moments during the campaign and obviously started out very well bbut you can’t say City are a better side this year than they were last seasoseason.

That alone wowould put most managers undeunder pressure, given the expectation levellev at top clubs these days, but the differenced with Guardiola andan a very small group of managersmanage like him is that they can get aaway with saying “the team arear in transition — we are bubuilding”. He can argue it’s a three-year or fiveyeayear project. Great! We’d alall love five years at a club to try to make something happen. TThe plain fact is they should have been better than they are.

City still need another four players to win the title next year. The back four is nowhere near good enough. They need a goalkeeper and we can say for definite now that Guardiola got that situation all wrong by bombing Joe Hart out on loan.

Claudio Bravo always gives strikers prepared to close him down a chance and that has regularly caused panic in a poor City defence.

Not having Champions League football will make it more difficult to attract players, but Guardiola is still a big draw and City will pay top dollar.

All they will do is give the player’s agent a bigger fee than the next club, he will then convince his client that’s the best move for him and talk up the fact it’ll probably be only one year out of Europe’s big competition.

It didn’t stop United signing Paul Pogba and Zlatan Ibrahimovic and it won’t stop City.

City badly need to finish fourth, at least, to avoid all that and I still think they can, mainly because United have a tough fixture list and Arsenal look as though they are too far back.

Arsene Wenger says they have to

Guardiola is among a very small group of managers who can get away with saying ‘the team are in transition’

win all their remaining games and you have to agree, but Sunday’s north London derby — potentially the last ever one at White Hart Lane — will be very difficult to win.

Spurs look the stronger team at the moment and they could kill Arsenal off there and then.

Of course, United spent a fortune, too, last summer and you have to say they have underperformed over the course of the season as well.

A lack of goals at home has hurt them but they are unbeaten in the League since October 23 and if only a couple of those unfortunate draws had been wins, United would be bang there for a top-four finish.

The sheer number of games they have had to play is starting to catch up with them and, having suffered with injuries all season long, they are starting to mount up again.

Ibrahimovic and Marcos Rojo are finished for the season with ligament injuries and that’s a huge blow for them. It would be embarrassing for Mourinho if United miss out on the Champions League but the pressure is greater on Guardiola this evening. Or at least it should be. Tonight, 8pm, Sky Sports 1