Evening Standard

We shot ourselves in the foot and pain is starting to tell

- Jim Armitage City Editor

AND so the pain begins.

Today’s shocking GDP figures, worse than the gloom laden economists had predicted, totally give the lie to the nonsense talk from the Brexit camp that all will be well outside the EU.

Sure, it took longer than the experts predicted. But we should be in no doubt: removing ourselves from our closest trading partners is proving to be the biggest mistake of a generation. A bullet in Britain’s foot that is hobbling us needlessly as the rest of the world stages a healthy economic recovery.

Retail sales are stuttering as inflation outpaces wages.

Companies are struggling to absorb the higher currency costs of imports.

Businesses are holding off from making the investment decisions that boost orders, jobs and productivi­ty. The worst of today’s numbers was felt by the shops, hotels and restaurant­s serving straitened consumers. But that will spread to other sectors as the domestic economy stalls.

It’s easy to think macro-economic data is something esoteric and unreal. You can’t touch, see or taste 0.3% GDP growth.

But don’t be fooled. Other figures also out today show the number of companies plunging into administra­tion jumped 13% in the last quarter on a year ago.

That is a trend we will see all too clearly in the vacant shops on our High Streets and worsening unemployme­nt. The public’s demand for Brexit will shrink in line with our economic growth.

Perhaps another referendum in 2019 won’t be such a bad idea after all. WHO said banks couldn’t make a profit off low Bank of England interest rates?

Today’s numbers from RBS and Barclays cap off a week of decent earnings from lenders big and small.

How are they doing it? Often in ways that are good for the bank and its shareholde­rs (taxpayers, in RBS’s case), but less so for customers.

The key is in the net interest margin — that’s the difference between what they pay to borrow and what they charge to lend. Across the board, those margins have been steadily rising, particular­ly among the big boys.

First quarter NIM at RBS in 2015 and 2016 was 2.15%. Today’s came in at 2.24%. Barclays — traditiona­lly a big margin maker — has pushed NIMs up progressiv­ely from 3.60% in 2015 to 3.69% now. Across the sector, increases have been particular­ly sharp in the past couple of quarters.

How have they done it? By lowering rates for savers, of course. Often dramatical­ly.

We want our banks to be strong and stable, naturally.

But with savers already struggling from the Bank of England’s rate cuts, jacking up their margins is not a good look.

Another quarter of NIM increases like this, and consumer watchdogs will start asking questions. @ArmitageJi­m

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