How will London survive a jobs crisis?

IMAGINE a disaster film where a boat is stranded in a river, drifting towards a huge waterfall. Those trapped on board know it is coming. The roar gets louder. They struggle to save themselves. What happens next?

It’s a bit like that with the jobs disaster being caused by coronavirus. For months, we’ve known that a deep recession is on its way, but quick work by the Treasury with things such as furlough and the business bailout has held back the pain. But not for much longer.

Today brings two pieces of evidence. The first is our exclsuive poll which suggests that more than a third of London commuters who are now working from home do not expect to return to their offices before Christmas. For some, the new way of life has proved a lot happier — and more homeworking is likely to be a permanent part of many people’s lives. But if people stay away from central London, they also stay away from all the things which link us together to make this city — and others in our country — a powerhouse. They won’t be there to eat out, shop, pop into a gallery, or have a drink after work.

Everything shrinks — and there is a price to pay in jobs. Russell & Bromley, the smart retailer which once kept Theresa May in shoes, is closing seven shops in central London which had just reopened after lockdown.

The second piece of evidence comes this morning from the Office for National Statistics. Its early estimates show that 649,000 fewer people were in work in June than in March. The rate of decline actually slowed last month — but that’s probably more to do with the success of the furlough scheme than an economic bounce back. When the scheme ends in October, as it must, the real impact will be felt.

How do we stop the cities emptying and the jobs being lost. Confidence. How do we get it? It will take clear rules to show that office work can be safe — the ongoing muddle on masks from ministers hardly help. It means doing what other European countries have already done and getting people back on to public transport. The Tube and trains are safe, and government guidance needs to reflect that. Above all it means a comprehensive testing and tracing system to contain spikes and prevent a city-wide second wave. All this helps us live and work with the vrius as we await new vaccines and treatments — with encouraging reports today from scientists in Oxford. Confidence breeds hope and thanks to hope we don’t yet know how this disaster film ends.

A third of commuters do not expect to return to their offices before Christmas