Evening Telegraph (First Edition)
Experts warn of 250,000 UK deaths without stricter controls
ABOUT 250,000 people will die in Britain as a result of the coronavirus outbreak unless more draconian measures are adopted to protect the population, scientists have warned.
The Imperial College Covid-19 response team – which has been advising ministers – said that even with the “social distancing” plans set out by the government, the health system will be “overwhelmed many times over”.
In its latest report, it said the only “viable strategy” was a Chinese-style policy of “suppression” i nvolving the social distancing of the entire population.
It said such measures would need to be maintained, potentially for 18 months or more until an effective vaccine became available.
The stark warning came after Boris Johnson unveiled unprecedented peacetime measures to try to control the spread of Covid-19.
They were announced as the death toll of people with coronavirus in the UK reached 55.
In the first of his daily No 10 press conferences, the prime minister called on people to stay away from pubs, clubs and theatres and to avoid all nonessential contacts and travel.
Under the latest government advice, anyone living i n a household with somebody who has the symptoms of a persistent cough or fever was told to isolate themselves for 14 days.
Special guidance will be issued for the 1.4 million people most at risk from the disease – including the elderly with underlying health conditions – on further measures they need to take to “shield” themselves.
Mr Johnson said the measures were needed as the UK was approaching the “fast growth part of the upward curve” in the number of cases.
“Without drastic action, cases could double every five or six days,” he said.
However, the Imperial College report warned that even with such a dramatic closing down of normal life, the capacity of health systems in the UK and the US – which is adopting similar measures was likely to be “exceeded many times over”.
“In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively