NHS prepares for winter challenge

TOP Tayside doctors have warned January could be “the most challenging” yet because of household mixing over Christmas.

The NHS board met on Thursday to discuss how it plans to deal with a predicted surge in Covid-19 on top of normal winter pressures such as seasonal flu.

People living in Scotland, England and Northern Ireland will be allowed to form “Christmas bubbles” of up to eight people from three different households from Wednesday December 23 until Sunday December 27. Wales has a two household limit.

But several experts, including those on NHS Tayside, have warned the relaxed restrictions will cause a surge in Covid-19 cases.

Dr David Connell, clinical lead for winter planning at NHS Tayside, laid out what steps the health board is taking to make sure it copes with the increase in demand.

He said the key to success would be managing all viral illnesses including Covid-19, seasonal flu, other flu-like illnesses and norovirus while still maintaining unscheduled and planned care.

Dr Connell also said it was important Tayside’s hospitals are prepared for a surge in demand while still sticking to social distancing, and added NHS Tayside had one of the biggest uptakes of the flu vaccination on mainland Scotland.

He said: “Winter is hard because of the increase in demand.

“It can lead to orthopaedic spikes and staff illnesses and we have to manage surges of Covid-19 alongside other winter respiratory diseases like the flu – that is why it will be harder.

“My concern is what will happen at Christmas when Covid-19 rates increase.

“With the mixing of households there will be an increase in transmission of Covid-19 and then there will be a rise in Covid-19 inpatients and others through late December and January.

“January is always busy but it will peak in early to mid-January.

“We are already at this level so January could feel much busier.

“Covid-19 has a 20-25% inpatient mortality rate and the virus has not changed significantly so we expect that to continue.

“The worst case scenario would be a significant flu season alongside a Covid-19 surge, staff shortages, winter weather and EU exit.

“We have to prepare to do this for the next seven to 14 weeks.

“But when there is pressure, NHS Tayside will still deliver to people.”

Hospitals in Tayside – including Ninewells – are gearing up for a surge in demand over the winter months.