Expert opinion and analysis
Is Formula 1 set for a three-way title fight between Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull this year? It looks possible after the first competitive blows of the season.
This issue of F1 Racing went to press before the Bahrain Grand Prix, but the season-opening race in Australia offered hints that the battle between the big three teams could be closer than some feared.
Mercedes certainly have a car advantage – Melbourne winner Sebastian Vettel admitted as much after the race in Australia. But it is not as great as it might have appeared after Lewis Hamilton’s stunning qualifying lap, which put him on pole by nearly 0.7 seconds.
When Hamilton produced that time on Saturday afternoon at Albert Park, many rolled their eyes and attributed it to the Mercedes qualifying engine mode boost that has helped keep the silver cars clear of the rest of the field throughout the hybrid engine era. But that was not the main reason for Hamilton’s huge advantage.
Analysis of the laps of the world champion and Kimi Räikkönen shows that in fact the Ferrari gained 0.2secs on the Mercedes down the three main straights.
The lap time all came in the corners – and much of that seems to have been thanks to Hamilton, who has always gone exceptionally well around Albert Park.
On his final lap, Hamilton was 11kmh faster than his previous run in Turns 1 and 2 and 16kmh up in Turn 6.
This is simply a rarefied ‘zone’ in which Hamilton is sometimes capable of operating.
Vettel, meanwhile, is still not happy with the Ferrari’s balance, and he made a mistake in Turn 13 on his pole-shot lap. His average advantage over Räikkönen is about 0.2secs in qualifying, which brings the gap to Hamilton down to 0.5secs. Still a lot, but it’s the sort of margin Hamilton sometimes has over the field – as he demonstrated at Montréal, Silverstone and Monza last year, for example. Vettel remains a driver who needs a car to behave in a certain way to deliver his formidable best – he is less adaptable than Hamilton and Fernando Alonso.
“The car has huge potential but I’m still struggling a little bit,” he said. “If we also compare to where we’re still a bit weak, it’s where I feel that the car is not yet there.
“So, what am I missing, when you talk about something that you miss as a driver, [it’s that] the car doesn’t respond the way you like and it’s still sliding in places you don’t want it to slide. I want the car to be spot-on when I hit brakes and turn in, and in that window I’m not yet happy, so it’s always sort of a compromise.
“Of course, it’s our job to drive around problems but if I could choose, I would like it a bit different. I think we can live with it but I feel also if we get on top of that then you feel more confident. If you then have the confidence and you trust the car, you don’t think for a second, you just go out and do it. At the moment, it just feels a bit too conscious. So let’s hope I get to think less.”
Even with these limitations, the Ferrari was closely matched with the Mercedes on race pace in Melbourne. Hamilton said he found it hard to pull away from Räikkönen in the first stint – he had managed just over three seconds by the time of the pitstops.
After the stops and the fateful intervention of the Virtual Safety Car, which decided the race, Hamilton was able to stay within a second of the Ferrari for 16 laps. On the face of it, that suggests a significant pace advantage. On the other hand, how hard was Vettel pushing? He knew, as he said, it would be hard for Hamilton to pass.
After the race, Hamilton was as sure as he could be that he was in for a fight this season.
“I never know how it is going to pan out,” he said. “You don’t get a good understanding until after four races. There will be ups and downs. Ferrari are really quick on the straight. And they are always good on hot circuits.”
Vettel said he felt Ferrari were not quite as competitive as they were last year – but then at this point last year they had the fastest car.
“At the moment we’re a bit worse off,” Vettel said. “Last year we had more pace at this point. If you look at the gaps the whole weekend, we’re not yet a true match. If you look and you are fair, then Lewis was fastest, whereas last year I think we were fastest and it was very, very close and therefore at this point we know that we are not yet where we want to be.”
“THE CAR DOESN’T RESPOND THE WAY YOU LIKE AND IT’S STILL SLIDING IN PLACES. IF I COULD CHOOSE, I WOULD LIKE IT A BIT DIFFERENT SEBASTIAN VETTEL
As for Red Bull, they appeared very closely matched with Mercedes and Ferrari until qualifying, when the big two teams turned up their engines, which the Renault teams are not able to do to the same extent.
But their race pace looks strong: Daniel Ricciardo set the fastest lap in Australia on the only lap he had in clear air, so the chassis is clearly good. Renault say they have engine upgrades coming and if Red Bull can be as close as they were on a power-sensitive track such as Melbourne, then at races such as Spain, Monaco, Hungary, Singapore and Malaysia they could be a real handful.
Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff said: “In terms of a pattern I don’t know. I think it will depend on the circuits. On less power-sensitive tracks the Red Bull might be a bit closer but I expect these three teams to be able to win races and go for the championship.”