What are the possible effects of the shift towards electric cars?
The UK Government is betting that if it stops us driving petrol and diesel cars by the middle of the century, fewer people will die because of air pollution. But the transport revolution will have huge consequences for Wales’ motor industry, economy and e
Why haven’t we switched earlier?
The two main concerns with electric vehicles are “range anxiety” and cost.
Electric cars can only go a certain distance before they need to recharge, and then take time to charge up even at a fast charge point – although batteries are improving, extending cars’ range to 300 miles, and potentially could soon be charged in just a few minutes.
Electric vehicles are also more expensive to buy than their traditional equivalents, though they are then cheaper to run and require less servicing as they have far fewer mechanical parts.
The government has been offering grants of up to £4,500 for battery electric vehicles, with which it is estimated they are already cheaper over a threeyear running period than their conventional equivalents.
And a report by think-tank Policy Exchange suggests they will be costcompetitive with conventional vehicles without grants by the early 2020s.
Will I still be able to drive my petrol car after 2040?
The UK Government has committed to end the sale of all new conventional petrol and diesel cars by 2040.
This implies you would still be able to drive a vintage vehicle – or the family car you purchased in 2035 – but the goal is that “nearly every car and van on UK roads to be zero emission by 2050”.
There is particular concern about diesel because vehicles are “causing harmful emissions far above what was assumed” and public health is suffer- ing. However, the UK Government wants to improve air quality in a way that does not “unfairly penalise ordinary working families who bought diesel vehicles in good faith”.
How many more power stations will be needed for all the new electric vehicles?
There are approximately 38.7 million licensed vehicles in the United Kingdom. If all of these were powered by electricity there would be a monumental surge in demand on the country’s power stations.
Politicians will have to worry not only about keeping lights on but how to keep electric cars, lorries and trains on electrified lines moving.
The Times reported earlier this year that switching to all-electric cars in London would “demand five times the amount of power needed to run the entire London Underground network” and that if this happened across the entire country “the equivalent of 20 new nuclear power stations” would be needed.
The strain on the system will depend on how and when cars are charged and estimates vary.
The Telegraph says the extra power needed will be “almost 10 times the total power output of the new Hinckley Point C nuclear power station being built in Somerset”.
What’s clear is major dilemmas about energy production are going to intensify. Earlier this month the National Grid calculated that growth in electric vehicles meant peak electricity demand could increase by 3.5GW by 2030 and – in the most extreme scenario – 18GW by 2050.
The Hendry Review, which gave the thumbs up to the Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon, warned in January: “The UK currently has eight operational nuclear plants with a combined capacity of 8.9GW, and all but one of these is scheduled to close by 2030.”
What will happen to all the petrol stations?
The number of filling stations has crashed from 19,000 in 1990 to just 8,476 at the end of last year. This decline was driven by the move by supermarkets into this market but a switch to electric cars could devastate the sector.
Already, electric cars can go for 100 to 300 miles on a charge. By 2040 we can expect charging times to be shorter, the driving times longer and the batteries lighter.
Charging points are already appearing at service stations to meets the needs of drivers of electric vehicles on long journeys but millions of people will charge up their cars at home.
A key question is how people who lack access to off-street parking will charge their vehicles. Department for Transport research in 2009 found that only 48% of households had access to a garage so there may be a need for charging points in traditional forecourts.
What will happen to engine plants like Ford’s in Bridgend?
Around 18,000 people are directly employed in the motor industry in Wales, according to the Welsh Automotive Forum.
If a vehicle revolution is coming, Wales needs to have the skills and the technology in place to make the transition to the post-petrol era.
The Ford plant in Bridgend has manufactured around 655,000 engines a year. If the industry is to flourish in Wales it needs to persuade the biggest names in the sector to manufacture the next generation of engines here.
Government will have an important role to play in ensuring that workers have the right skills and there is help with investment in new equipment.
Are people who work at oil refineries in Wales at risk of losing their jobs?
The petroleum industry faces one of the greatest challenges in its history if the development of super-batteries changes the world so we embrace electrically powered travel.
Transport fuel is of huge importance to refineries – and that dependence is growing. The UK Petroleum Industry Association notes that the “current trend of production is away from heating fuels (fuel and gas oils) and towards transport fuels (petrol, diesel and jet fuel)”.
The members of this association employed around 8,000 people in 2015, with more than 150,000 people in roles such as driving tankers and working at service stations.
Around 44% of the products produced at the Valero Pembroke Refinery are gasolines.
How will the Government make up for lost taxes from road fuel?
The Treasury will have to fill a giant hole in the public finances.
The UK Petroleum Industry Association lays out just how dependent the Treasury is on this source of income: “The 2017 Budget estimates fuel duty receipts for 2016-17 at £27.9bn... In addition to the duty on road fuels, around £8.4bn was collected as VAT...
“This combined figure is around 5% of total public sector current receipts and would cover over 24% of the public sector’s total spending on health or 75% of the country’s total spending on defence.”