The heat is on...
Navidi & co looking over their shoulders after summer tour replacements impress:
WARREN Gatland outlined his belief that Wales’ impressive win over Argentina last weekend would leave a number of players left at home fretting for the places.
It was one of the best performances of Gatland’s decade-long reign as Wales head coach and he laughed when asked whether it would give him a selection headache, saying: “I think the boys sat at home watching on the TV have probably got a worse headache than I have.”
He could not have been more right, with the competition for places in certain positions becoming more intense than it has been since the New Zealander took over in 2008.
At the 2015 World Cup, he took named 17 backs and 14 forwards to England, with only five props and two hookers. This time he has indicated he could edge towards an 18-13 split, maybe with only five back-row forwards, depending on whether a utility prop can be found.
We assess how the picture for a number of Wales’ absent stars has just become more complicated...
THOSE WHO HAD SEEMED LIKELY TO MAKE THE WORLD CUP BUT NOW WE’RE NOT SO SURE
THESE are the players who at some point over the past year have appeared well-placed to feature in Warren Gatland’s plans but, for whatever reason, will start 2018-19 knowing they have work to do to nail down places.
KRISTIAN DACEY
He featured in all four of Wales’ autumn Tests, including the series finale against South Africa, when he started. Had the World Cup been played then he would have expected to feature.
But, hampered by injuries, he missed out on Six Nations selection and even had to play through the pain barrier for Cardiff Blues because of a back problem in the Challenge Cup final.
Now he has seen Elliot Dee take his chance with both hands. It was Dee’s crunching tackle early on against Argentina that set the tone for a committed Wales display and the likelihood is the Dragon is now Wales’ No.2 hooker behind Ken Owens.
Wales took only two hookers to the 2015 World Cup, and there is a school of thought that Ryan Elias is now their third-choice. It all looks bleak for Dacey.
JAKE BALL
A dislocated shoulder sustained against New Zealand in November meant Ball had his 2017-18 season abruptly curtailed.
Warren Gatland enjoys Ball’s aggression and work-rate and the probability is the Scarlet will reclaim his place in the pecking order next season. If Wales name five specialist locks, as they did in 2015, he will be pretty much assured of a place.
But if Gatland takes just four engine room workers and a back-five utility forward the picture becomes complicated. Alun Wyn Wyn Jones and Cory Hill seem assured of places, Adam Beard caught the eye against Argentina and Bradley Davies could also be in the mix. Ball could have a fight on his hands, but the smart money would still be on the Scarlet making the squad.
AARON SHINGLER
Here’s an interesting one. A burst of career-best form helped catapult him back into the Wales starting line-up and he brought with him athleticism around the field, line-out expertise, mobility, work-rate and a fair bit of aggression.
A blindside by choice, Shingler can also play at lock. But a serious knee injury could see him sidelined for the rest of the year and essentially he will then be back at square one and have to start his challenge again.
The back row is horribly congested and the last thing any aspiring Wales World Cup player in that area needs is an injury.
JOSH NAVIDI
Navidi walked off with the Welsh Rugby writers’ player-of-the-year bauble for 2017-18, but that will cut no ice at all with Gatland. Justin Tipuric won the accolade the previous season and in the campaign just finished he started just two games for Wales.
Gatland does seem to like Navidi, though, and understandably so after his gutsy and convincing displays for Wales and Cardiff Blues.
The problem is that little is certain in the national back-row mix.
Gatland took just five back-rowers to England three years ago, and even if he takes six, all bets are off with Ellis Jenkins, Ross Moriarty and James Davies playing so well on this tour.
JUSTIN TIPURIC
He’s been given a summer off, presumably as a means of preparing for a demanding 13 months that will culminate in a World Cup appearance.
In all probability, then, he will feature in Japan. The excellent form of Ellis Jenkins and James Davies on this tour, and Josh Navidi’s topdrawer efforts last term, means that every openside will have to justify their selection with consistently strong form.
The multi-skilled Tipuric will still be fancied to travel. But no Welsh openside, perhaps not even Sam Warburton after so long out of the game, is guaranteed anything.
THOSE WHOSE HOPES HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE UP IN SMOKE
SELF-EXPLANATORY, this. All listed below have become fairly long-odds outsiders to make Warren Gatland’s World Cup squad.
One or two of them might be able to save themselves — at least that’s what the secretaries of their respective fan clubs might believe.
But it’s hard to see it happening.
SCOTT BALDWIN
He had battled back into the Wales squad prior to his injury, so there’s a sliver of hope, but Elliot Dee and Ryan Elias have played well on this tour and Ken Owens is Wales number one. Baldwin needs fate to smile on him after a tough season last time out.
RORY THORNTON
The 6ft 7in Thornton is a high-quality line-out jumper who is mobile and athletic around the park. But during his prolonged absence through injury, a queue of locks has formed and it will take some doing for the Osprey to get near the front of it.
LUKE CHARTERIS
That Charteris is still in Warren Gatland’s mind could be seen from his being included in the initial party for the current tour. Rugby politics prevented the Bath player from travelling and his playing in England will not help his case next season. At 6ft 9in, 19st 7lb and with 74 caps behind him, he is a serious player whom Gatland values. But he will also be 36 come the World Cup.
DAN LYDIATE
Another great favourite with the Wales management. Lydiate is a warrior who has served Warren Gatland so well in the past, and remains a magnificent defender. But injuries have conspired against him and the competition at blindside is hot, hot, hot.
It’s not looking great.
JAMES KING
He featured in Wales’ squad for the 2015 global bash but has slipped from prominence since, not helped by injuries. He is supremely versatile, but it will take a lot for him to be involved at the tournament in Japan.
OLLIE GRIFFITHS
A man-handling back rower from the Dragons who spent much of last season in the casualty room while
others steamed ahead. Needs a run of blistering form to put himself in contention. Don’t risk the life savings on it.
THOMAS YOUNG
He is based in England and boasts just one start despite outstanding form for his club, Wasps.
Chances of Young appearing in Japan? Pinky and Perky might be airborne first.
TYLER MORGAN
One cap since the last World Cup doesn’t inspire confidence that Morgan will make it onto the starting grid for Japan next year.
He has ability, but injuries have blighted his career so far.
OWEN WILLIAMS
Anyone who watched this chap playing at No. 12 against Australia and New Zealand in the autumn could have been forgiven for feeling a World Cup place beckoned. But, playing for Gloucester, he hasn’t had a single minute of Test rugby since, with Hadleigh Parkes emerging on the big stage.
Wales also have Scott Williams and Jonathan Davies in midfield, with Owen Watkin seemingly the next in line.
RHYS PRIESTLAND
His form was so compelling last autumn, but he started just once in the November Tests and hit injury trouble thereafter.
If Wales pick just two fly-halves for New Zealand, expect them to be Dan Biggar and Rhys Patchell, perhaps with Gareth Anscombe bagging a utility role.
SAM DAVIES
Nowhere last term, he has talent and will be first choice at fly-half for his region in 2018-19 but time is against him.