God help Wales... there is no good Brexit
IN a previous correspondence I pointed out how “rules of origin” mean that in any trade negotiations with the EU they become not bilateral but at least trilateral. We have today this being brought home in strong reminders from both the EU and the Dutch government. This is basically pointing out the legal repercussions of avoiding these rules if the UK leaves the customs union to become a third party. It backs this up by advising companies not to use British components.
This would be absolutely devastating for much of UK manufacturing. God help Wales. There is also another technical point that is often conveniently ignored by Brexiters. If we default to WTO rules then we agree to the main trading principal of “most favoured nation”. This basically means no discrimination is allowed if there are no permitted agreements in place. Once something is offered to one WTO member it has to offered by all. Many people take this to mean tariffs. It goes beyond this, however. This means that British exports to the EU will be treated as coming from any third country. They will thus have to go through the same customs checks as those, let us say, coming from the USA. More expense such as this will make exports more uncompetitive. The same in reverse will also apply. Goods coming into the UK will need customs clearance and checks. More expense and, in case the case of perishables, perhaps no imports at all. Think food unavailability and component delivery delays by companies relying on JIT.
Perhaps Brexiters, who don’t want ECJ involvement will advocate not obeying WTO rules and regulations? Best of luck with that. Britain is not exceptional.
Things are now getting very serious indeed.
The people of Wales, as I said before, voted to become a whole lot poorer.
Going back to pre our joining is simply not an option. The Single Market has altered everything. There is no good Brexit. Dr Robert Morgan Efail Isaf