Referendums solved nothing so let’s not hold another one

FANS of political paralysis and constitutional chaos may be worried right now by news that negotiators for the EU and UK have struck a deal.

It could herald the beginning of the end for the era of Brexit and we may finally find out the answer to whether those characters screaming outside Westminster and poking placards into news shots actually do have homes to go to.

But fear not, all is not lost. A future of stability and relative normality is a long way away.

The deal has yet to get through the UK Parliament and even if it does there is the sequel to look forward to.

Yes, the First Minister stated clearly this week that the Scottish Government will be looking for the powers to hold a second referendum on independence and that it must take place next year.

Nicola Sturgeon said she was sick of Westminster and sick of Brexit.

She is certainly not alone, but what the First Minister may find is people are also sick of referendums.

But another referendum next year is what is being planned for.

Another referendum which will produce a result where more people voted for one option over another.

But another referendum that will not definitively settle the issue.

The 2014 independence referendum obviously didn’t settle it or we wouldn’t be heading for another one. The Brexit referendum, with an even narrower result but hailed by those on the winning side as the biggest democratic exercise in UK history, rather than settling the matter, has crippled a country.

That great democratic mandate shouted from the rooftops by Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Jacob Rees Mogg saw 51.9% of those who voted vote one way and 48.1% the other.

Decisive if it was football match but not for a decision on the future of four nations, especially when two of them voted the other way from the overall majority. Referendums might provide an arithmetical winner but they settle nothing.

What they do is polarize the electorate and create tribal divisions with labels applied that separate people who otherwise may be in broad agreement politically.

Yes versus No, Leave versus Remain.

How you ticked a box that day, if you chose to tell others, has you marked out for those who argue vehemently for one side or the other as having no credibility on anything else you have to say.

It is crippling political debate and seriously hampering the ability to progress.

People have become Yessers, Nats or Yoons, leavers or remainers, Brexiteers or remoaners.

We are about to go through the whole thing again in Scotland. First will be the demand for the Section 30 Order that is required from the UK Government to hold a legal referendum and who knows what the official response will be once the official request is made.

Unless a referendum produces a clear result, an undeniable substantial majority, they are destined to create divisions which last.

People take on an identity they previously didn’t consider and look upon others in a different way because of how they voted on one day on one issue.

Nicola Sturgeon this week at the SNP conference, ruled out any other mechanism to independence other than a legal referendum to ensure the result was legitimate in law and independence was recognised internationally.

The First Minister is right to insist on that, even though some independence supporters are itching for a contest no matter what.

Some people want a Catalan style referendum with no legal basis.

But Catalonia is not independent so tactically the SNP leader is right.

Ms Sturgeon and the SNP leadership should go further if it wants legitimacy.

If independence is achieved through a narrow majority it will not be accepted by those on the opposite side, who will demand a third referendum. A confirmatory referendum, similar to what has been called for over Brexit and which may yet happen.

For the issue to be settled there needs to be a clear result. Otherwise the fallout will last for decades.

Only the victors are satisfied with 50% plus one for a mandate. A result which if the vote was run the following week could produce the opposite result.

There may be flaws with setting a threshold either on turnout or on the majority required.

But the current method does not equal the settled will of the people.

‘‘ Referendums might provide an arithmetical winner but they settle nothing