Gender gap on Yes vote ‘ now shrinking’

THE “gender gap” in support for Scottish independence is disappearing in recent polls, according to Professor Sir John Curtice.

The elections expert said studies from 2014 found men were much more likely to vote Yes than women, who supported No to a larger degree.

Sir John said recent polls found this gap has shrunk or vanished altogether, while a number of pollsters have found support for independence has risen above 50%

He published a blog post analysing the recent polling on Scottish independence on the What Scotland Thinks website yesterday.

The University of Strathclyde academic cautioned against reading too much into the recent Ipsos MORI poll for STV, which put support for Yes at 58%, as another poll by Savanta ComRes put Yes support at 53%.

He said: “The fact that we have had two polls whose fieldwork dates overlap, one pointing to a further increase in support for independence and one not, means that at this stage at least we have to reserve judgment on whether there has been a further increase on the modest lead for Yes that has been consistently reported by the polls since June.

“This is particularly the case given that Ipsos MORI’s poll was their first of this year and thus we have no previous reading from the coronavirus era with which to compare their latest reading.

“What we can say on the basis of the two polls is that there continues to be a sustained lead for Yes – it is now nine polls in a row that have put Yes ahead, a wholly unprecedented picture.”

The professor said two demographic features worth nothing are the disappearance of the “gender gap” and the continued difference in age groups.

Sir John said: “On average the last nine polls have put support for Yes at 54%. These same nine polls on average put the figure for both men and women at 54% too.”