‘Supermajority for independence looks possible’
THE SNP are forecast to win a majority of seats at the Scottish Parliament election, according to the latest opinion poll.
The Ipsos Mori poll for STV found more than half (53%) of the respondents who are registered to vote and are at least 9/10 likely to do so intend to choose an SNP candidate in their constituency on May 6.
This is a rise of one percentage point.
The party’s support on the regional list has fallen by nine percentage points since the previous poll, to 38%.
Support for the Scottish Greens has risen by four percentage points in the same period, to 12%.
Only 3% of voters said they would cast their list vote for Alex Salmond’s recently launched Alba Party.
For the constituency vote, the headline Scottish Parliament voting intention figures are at 20% for the Scottish Conservatives, down three percentage point on the February poll.
Scottish Labour are on 18% (-3), the Scottish LibDems are on 6% (+1) and the Scottish Greens are on 2% (-1).
Independence is seen as the top issue helping voters decide which party to vote for, with 49% mentioning it – up five percentage points on the previous poll.
Education comes second, followed by the NHS, managing the economy and then coronavirus at 15%.
Emily Gray, Ipsos Mori Scotland managing director, said: “Independence remains the top issue for Scotland’s voters and an independence ‘supermajority’ at Holyrood looks within the realms of possibility.”
“The Alba Party’s main impact to date may have been to remind pro-independence voters of how to use their regional vote tactically.”
The pollsters found
52% of those likely to vote in a referendum backed independence, while 48% would vote no.