Rescue plan will focus on support for local trading

ABEST case scenario of 26,000 job losses in the county this year has been predicted as a big campaign to get people to support local trade has been launched.

Gloucestershire’s Local Enterprise Partnership, Gfirst LEP, has revealed its coronavirus rescue plan and says as many as 49,000 jobs could go this year and early next year due to the pandemic.

It launched an ambitious plan to get Gloucestershire’s economy back on its feet in the wake of Covid-19.

It contains an unprecedented package of interventions to get businesses up and trading again, restore business, consumer and community confidence, and offer support to those who do lose their jobs.

The partnership said the pandemic had brought the economy to a standstill, with thousands of businesses unable to trade and 89,000 workers in the county placed on furlough.

Now as the lockdown is eased, it said a series of interventions were needed to help businesses and individuals hit by the economic impact of the virus.

Chief executive David Owen said: “The county is commencing on a long, complex and difficult journey in a world that has been turned upside down in just a few months.”

Gfirst LEP has produced three reports, looking at economic impact, sector analysis and the recovery plan.

In terms of the economic impact, it said: “Three scenarios are presented: worst case, middle case, and best case. Gross Value Added of these scenarios shows that GVA is forecast to fall in quarter two of 2020 to between 71 per cent (£2.9billion) and 91 per cent (£3.7bn) of pre-crisis quarterly levels (£4.1bn).

“Employment initially falls fastest in the middle scenario, to 92 per cent of the pre-crisis level in quarter three of 2020, a loss of 26,000 jobs, but it then starts to recover. In the worst-case scenario, employment falls more in quarter four of 2020 and quarter one of 2021, after current Government support ceases, to 85 per cent of the precrisis level, a loss of 49,000 jobs from the pre-crisis level of employment.”

The recovery plan, headed ‘Reimagine and Restart,’ includes an extensive range of potential interventions that Gfirst LEP thinks will get the county back on track, including:

» A ‘Think Gloucestershire’ campaign - a promotional campaign encouraging staycations within the county, supporting shops and restaurants, and from a business point of view, trying to support and buy from local businesses.

» Recruiting sector-specialist business advisers for the Growth Hub Network to support these sectors, for example cyber/digital and manufacturing.

» A campaign to promote Gloucestershire as a ‘Work from Anywhere’ county to help its ambition to be a county that attracts workers and younger people. ‘Blended Working,’ a mixture of working from home combined with time at a co-working site, will continue to become an accepted and expected form of working.

» Support the expected growth in startup businesses - during recession and periods of high unemployment it is usual to see a growth in start-up businesses. This pattern is likely to repeat itself during this recession and possibly to a high degree as working from home becomes more widely spread. Existing provision of business support for startup businesses should be reviewed with a view to ensuring online provision meets the need to support business growth in this area.

The partnership wants to see infrastructure commitments confirmed.

These included commitments to fund the A417 ‘Missing Link’ scheme to build a new 3.4 mile dual carriageway linking the M4 and the M5, creating an ‘all-ways’ Junction 10 of the M5 and work to improve Junction 9 at Tewkesbury.

To read the full recovery plan, visit gfirstlep.com