Stark new lockdown warning
A SECOND coronavirus lockdown would see the West Yorkshire economy shrink by £12bn this year, with employment levels not recovering until 2027, the county’s political leaders have warned.
West Yorkshire Combined Authority has drawn up plans for how it can speed up its recovery from the pandemic with investment in health tech, digital, entrepreneurs and the transition to a net-zero-carbon economy.
But its proposal to be submitted to Ministers includes a stark warning about the impact the lockdown is likely to have on the economy of West Yorkshire and its 2.3 million population.
Global information services company Experian estimates that if West Yorkshire’s economy returns to pre-crisis levels by the end of the September, it would have contracted by 10 per cent or £5.3bn over the course of 2020.
But in the worst case scenario of a double-dip recession and a second lockdown this winter, more than £12bn would be wiped off the county’s gross value added (GVA) representing the value of its economy in the same period.
In this scenario, average unemployment rates locally would peak at 10 per cent and levels of joblessness would not return to pre-crisis levels until 2027 at the earliest.
While the best-case scenario would see 30,000 jobs potentially lost in 2020, a second lockdown could result in 58,000 jobs going over the year.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he does not want to impose a second national lockdown in the event of another Covid-19 outbreak.
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