We’re getting older!

Explosion in number of over-75s in next 20 years

A population time bomb is primed to go off across Lanarkshire – as the number of people aged over 75 is set to increase by 76 per cent over the next two decades.

Life expectancy is continuing to increase dramatically over the region according to NHS Lanarkshire.

It is projected that there will be 37,300 more people aged over 75 by 2035.

The figures are contained in the annual report of the director of public health, Dr Harpreet Kohli, who said the healthcare strategy “highlights the challenges of providing safe, effective and person-centred health services as people live longer with multiple long-term conditions”.

The report states: “An increase of 36 per cent in the population aged 75 and over is projected by 2025, and a further increase on the 2025 projected population of 29 per cent by 2035.

“Overall this means a projected increase of 76 per cent over the next 20 years, resulting in 37,300 more people aged 75 and over based on the 2015 figure.”

It continues: “The largest fall in population will be in age range 45–59, with a projected decrease of 21 per cent by 2035.

“In particular, in the 45–49 age group, a 25 per cent decline is projected with an estimate of 12,695 less people in the next 20 years.”

Dr Kohli also revealed that the estimated population of the NHS Lanarkshire area on June 30, 2015, was 654,490 – an increase of 1190 from the 2014 estimate.

The report also revealed Lanarkshire’s health divide, with life expectancy higher in South Lanarkshire than in North Lanarkshire.

Men in the north can expect to live to 75.4 while the figure for the south is 76.6. Women in the north can expect to live to 79.7 while the figure for the south is 80.9.

However, life expectancy is still below national levels. People in Lanarkshire live on average a year less than others in Scotland (men 1.1 years less and women 0.9 years). Compared to the UK as a whole, men in Lanarkshire die 3.1 years earlier and women 2.6 years earlier.

This difference has increased over the last 10 years for men, but stayed roughly the same for women.

In 2015 there were 6901 live births in Lanarkshire, and 35 stillborn babies, compared to 7121 and 35 respectively in 2014.

Over the three-year period from 2013 to 2015, 99.7 per cent of all babies born alive in Lanarkshire survived their first year.

There was an average of 24 deaths per year, excluding stillborn babies. The infant death rate (deaths during first year of life) in Lanarkshire was 3.5 per 1000 live births similar to the Scottish rate of 3.4 per 1000 live births.

And there were 7121 deaths recorded among NHS Lanarkshire residents in 2015, an increase of 433 (6.5 per cent) compared to 2014.