Gearing up for the big vote at Westminister

In just over a week, on Tuesday, December 11, we will have reached a decisive moment in the torturous saga that is Brexit.

Westminster MPS will vote that day on whether to accept or reject the EU withdrawal deal and Political Declaration that Theresa May now says is the only deal on the table.

Time will tell, but the omens are not good for Mrs May’s deal as it has come in for criticism from all sides, for varying reasons.

This week the Scottish Government published analysis, which showed that the current proposal could cost the equivalent of £1,600 per person in Scotland by 2030, compared to EU membership.

Under the proposed deal, it is not even certain that a free trade deal will be agreed, meaning the cost to Scotland could be a lot higher.

This deal is wrong for Scotland on so many levels.

It takes Scotland out of the EU, despite a majority here voting to remain; it removes Scotland from the European Single Market of 500 million people, and it leaves future trading arrangements uncertain for both goods and services

Should the so-called Irish “backstop” come into play, it puts Scotland at a potential competitive disadvantage to Northern Ireland.

Under this deal free movement of people would end, which is vital for workers in sectors such as health and social care.

Without vital EU migration, Scotland’s working age population could decline by three per cent.

The deal also appears to contradict the UK Government’s previous position on fisheries: that there should be no link between access to UK waters and access to EU markets.

It will not be the first time that the Tories have failed Scotland’s fishing communities.

The guaranteed high standards and protections that come with EU membership would be eroded, including the environment, food safety, animal welfare, health and safety, equality and working conditions.

Over the past week, it has been widely speculated that there may be a TV debate on the deal – however it seems that the Prime Minister is only keen to debate Jeremy Corbyn.

The danger is that a debate between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, which is simply about two versions of Brexit that are only marginally different, is pointless and unrepresentative.

The idea that this is a binary choice between a Tory hard Brexit and a Labour hard Brexit is grossly misleading.

Both Theresa May and Labour are dismissing the potential inclusion of other voices, including that of our First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, who appears to be the only politician in the UK with a workable compromise plan that could command support in the House of Commons.

If they were confident in their own positions, then what are they afraid of?

Labour and the Tories only reflect the views of a limited proportion of the British public – and an even smaller proportion of the Scottish public, who voted overwhelmingly against Brexit – so it would be a massive mistake for a live leaders’ debate to go ahead without Nicola Sturgeon.

Theresa May’s deal would be devastating for the people of Scotland, and it is highly likely to be voted down in the House of Commons.

The Scottish Government is clear: our bottom line – short of continued EU membership – is continued, permanent membership of the Single Market and Customs Union, and we will continue talking with others to seek support for this compromise position.

The guaranteed high standards and protections that come with EU membership would be eroded