A volte face by our leaders

I AM surprised that, among the acres of newsprint and hours of broadcast time covering the referendum debate, one subject has not been carefully investigated.

The topic that seems to have been neglected is an attempt to explain why David Cameron and George Osborne have changed their minds about the EU.

Only a few months ago the duo were very ready to complain about the EU’s shortcomings including the regulations affecting trade and manufacture that, they would claim, hinder our economic progress.

They were relaxed about a possible Brexit, promising us an “export led recovery”, that our trading future lay outside Europe. Those Eurosceptic Tory supporters who 12 months ago were exclaiming their praise of the party leadership must be feeling very confused and let down.

Even one of his previous advisers tells us that at heart David would like us out.

My analysis suggests this. As exports languish and our imports surge and the trade gap has surpassed historic levels, a degree of realism has crept in. Our economy falters and stalls.

There has been a realisation that we must not take the risk of losing any of our trade with Europe, that it will not be as easy as they thought to expand our trade elsewhere, that building our business in other countries is going to take time, that it will involve risky investment, that in an increasingly competitive world, trade cannot be assumed.

If it were going to be as easy as the Brexiters imply, surely we would be doing it already?

If we leave Europe, we lose a trading partner and create a competitor of the biggest market in the world. The EU without Britain will compete with us for the markets that we will need, and it will have the advantage of trade agreements we will have rejected.

There is nothing in our membership of the EU that prevents us from seeking to grow our business with countries outside it. In fact membership enables us to benefit from the external trade agreements that the EU has negotiated. How much of our existing foreign trade has been gained under cover of these agreements and could be put at risk?

Not so long ago the financial press would regularly refer to the BRIC countries, and the trade with the rapidly expanding economies wherein our future prosperity would lie. In their individual ways and to differing extents Brazil, Russia, India and China have revealed themselves to be economic basket cases.

I believe that Cameron and Osborne have belatedly realised that the economic miracle they promised us is not going to be achieved by risking existing trading arrangements through leaving the EU. What other reason could there be for their amazing and overdue volte face?

David Hodgen Newbold Verdon