‘We’re heading for return to Championship’
16-yard header straight at Rico. Fulham then had to hurriedly block another Mounie header across the box as Pritchard looked to benefit, before the busy No10 tried to place a clear shooting opportunity rather than going for power, making it easy for the home keeper.
Fulham’s fans, at that stage, were becoming increasingly frustrated, as were their players, with Denis Odoi booked for tripping Billing on the run, and the half-time whistle was met with boos from the home contingent in a crowd of 24,423.
If anything, though, there had been too much sideways and backwards from Town, and they needed to step it up a notch in the second half.
Fulham made two changes at half-time, sending on Aboubakar Kamara and Maxime Le Marchand for Alfie Mawson and Seri.
And it made an immediate difference to the home side’s pace and intent, with Odoi narrowly failing to get on the end of a sweet free-kick move which again tripped Town’s offside plans.
Fulham fashioned a clear shooting chance for Joe Bryan on 57 minutes, too, but he fired tamely at Lossl from the left side of the box.
Town came under increasing pressure and only a smart save from Lossl on 61 prevented them from going behind to Mitrovic’s powerful header from Bryan’s left-wing cross.
Cyrus Christie was booked for bringing down Pritchard as he relieved the onslaught with a break towards half way, the midfielder and Mounie then being withdrawn and replaced by Kachunga and Depoitre as Town looked for that elusive goal in the final 25 minutes.
Lossl was unmoved again as Kamara tested him with an
It was cat-and-mouse stuff from both sides, with most of the noise coming from Town’s
support
angled volley, and the big Dane looked calm and assured in all his work.
Fulham sent on Sessegnon for the final 14 minutes to replace Vietto in a final throw of the dice.
And it looked like paying off 10 minutes from time.
Lossl did well to keep out a cross from deep on the right but when Kamara flicked the ball against Lowe’s arm, referee Friend pointed straight to the spot.
After an argument over who was going to take the spot-kick, Kamara stepped up but Lossl dived low to his left to beat the ball to safety, much to the delight of Town’s fans at the opposite end of the pitch.
That joy turned to despair, however, in the first minute of stoppage time as Sessegnon released Mitrovic on the break to slide the ball under the advancing Lossl for the winner.
Depoitre sent a late low effort just wide as Town tried for an equaliser – later sending up Lossl to challenge for a corner – but it was not enough to prevent a loss which leaves Town anchored adrift at the foot of the standings and in real trouble. AFTER Saturday’s heartbreaking injury-time goal from Fulham, I instinctively thought: that’s it,
Town are doomed.
When I’d calmed down, I decided to look at the statistics involved to see if they supported my gut feeling or not.
After 20 matches last season, Town had 23 points. They managed a further 14 in the last 18 games to finish with a total of 37.
In the event, 34 points would have kept Town safe.
If we imagine that 34 points would keep Town safe this season, Town need 24 points from their final 18 games.
What sort of form is that?
Over a whole season it equates to 51 points, meaning Town will have to play like the eighth best team in the division to stay up – the likes of Burnley or Everton from last season.
Is that achievable? Perhaps, but highly unlikely. It gets worse. Town will probably need more than 34 points to survive this time round.
After 20 games last season, the nine teams below Town averaged 18 points. This season, the bottom nine currently average 20 points.
That pushes the number of points needed up to 36 and that equates to 55 points for a whole season, meaning Town would have to be the best team outside the top six to stay up.
Is that achievable? With the best will in the world, I don’t think so.
All the teams in the bottom nine are taking it in turns to have little runs of point-taking. Except Town.
And even if one of them falls away, like Swansea did in losing their last five in 2017/18, one team isn’t enough. Town need three to fall away and I just don’t see it. And if Town lose to Burnley, they’ll need top six form just to have a chance of staying up.
Is that achievable? No. Not even if we sign Harry Kane.
Last season’s survival was remarkable. To do so again on the back of these seven defeats would be incredible.
I’m sure they will fight on until it’s mathematically impossible, but it’s time for the club to dust off their plans for the Championship and flesh them out.
It’s time for the club to dust off their plans for the Championship
and flesh them out