Batley could be next for byelection drama after Hartlepool
LABOUR circles in Yorkshire would have no doubt waited nervously for the result of the Hartlepool byelection, because they know all too well that one could be heading their way.
Pollsters had predicted a win for the Tories in Hartlepool – a hitherto Labour stronghold for 57 years – but it’s fair to say no-one expected the margin to be quite that wide.
In the end, the Tories confounded all expectations, with Thirsk farmer Jill Mortimer storming to victory with 51.9 per of the vote, compared with 28.7 per cent for Labour rival Paul Williams. The win represented a 16 per cent swing from Labour. It poses big questions for Sir Keir Starmer, who managed to lose the seat even while the roundly rejected former leader Jeremy Corbyn held on to it.
The next byelection now on everyone’s lips is Batley and Spen.
If Tracy Brabin, Labour’s candidate for West Yorkshire mayor, is declared the winner tomorrow, she will stand down as the constituency MP, triggering another fraught byelection.
Of course it remains an if at the moment, because the result has still not been declared. But if Tory Matt Robinson were to pull of a win in West Yorkshire, it would be a major upset.
The question is, how closely does Batley resemble Hartlepool, and what does the historic loss of that seat mean for Labour in West Yorkshire?
The similarities begin with the fact that both Batley and Hartlepool voted to leave the EU:
Hartlepool by 70 per cent and Batley by 59.6 per cent.
Labour’s decision to stand an arch-Remainer in Dr Williams in a heavily Leave-voting seat might not, in hindsight, have been the wisest decision, and perhaps the party has taken note.
The seats’ respective Labour majorities, before Hartlepool turned blue, were also remarkably close.
Batley’s once solid Labour majority has steadily chipped away over the years to stand at just 3,525 votes in December 2019 – just 70 votes shy of the majority held by Labour in Hartlepool going into this election. And while both seats may have resisted the Tory urge in 2019, it doesn’t mean Batley is bound to do so again.
Ultimately, Batley could fall for the same reasons Hartlepool did - a vaccineinduced optimism could lead voters to believe that choosing the Conservatives is the best option. Perhaps the level of support for the Tories here has been underestimated: don’t forget, three West
Yorkshire seats – Dewsbury, Wakefield and Colne Valley – fell to the Tories in 2019.
One source even suggested that the Conservatives could actually have won Batley in 2019 if they had poured more resources into winning the seat.
“It’s their most winnable seat this side of the Pennines,” they said.
Approached about Batley in April, a senior Conservative source took a different view on their party’s chances of success.
Hartlepool has just turned that mantra on its head. Could Batley do the same?