Fears we could be hit hard by Covid ‘exit wave’
YORKSHIRE could be the region hardest hit by a Covid “exit wave” as lockdown rules loosen, Government scientific advisers say.
The North East and Yorkshire could have the highest proportion of infections in England’s predicted “relaxation wave”, according to a report published this week by University of Warwick experts in the Government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling.
The model predicts more than 10% of the region’s population of 8.5 million will be infected in the third wave expected to accompany the reopening of society next Monday and on June 21.
London and the Midlands are predicted to have “by far the smallest relaxation waves” because a larger proportion of their populations were infected in previous waves, leading to greater immunity, the Warwick scientists said. The report predicts the third wave will vary at regional and local levels, “reflecting vaccine uptake and population level immunity”.
Dr Stephen Griffin, of the University of Leeds School of Medicine, told YorkshireLive he did not know whether the region would be hardest-hit by an “exit wave” but said many areas in the North still have high infection rates.
Dr Griffin said the prospect of a third wave is troubling because the UK’s vaccination programme is still not complete. The Government does not expect to vaccinate the entire adult population until the end of July.
“It really does depend on if [the Government] do stick to their mantra of data not dates or if they just press ahead,” the expert said.
“We still have much higher rates than last July and August. We need to remember how quickly it came back in September last year.
“There will almost certainly be another wave as we unlock. It’s a question of whether [the Government] wants to act preventatively or wait until it gets bad. I would always prefer the former. It depends how quickly people return to normal patterns of behaviour, as well as social distancing and maskwearing.”