How results shed light on Town’s hopes for Wembley
SHORT of the most catastrophic end-of-season collapse and an incredible run of form by one of the sides currently outside the top six, Town are there.
That means that with Town having already played twice against all of the sides they have a remote chance of meeting in the play-off bar rank outsiders Coventry, we can now look at how their record stacks up against their potential opponents in the end-of-season brawl for all.
For these purposes we are looking at each side’s record this season against the current top
11, who are the only sides left with even a vaguely realistic hope of cracking the top six - and there’s mixed news as far as Town’s record in those games is concerned.
The big positive overall is that Town’s record in those games is the fourth-best in the division, behind the top two – Fulham and Bournemouth – and, weirdly, Preston North End, who are well outside the play-off picture in 15th. Town have taken 1.37 points per game against the top 11, winning seven, drawing five and losing seven. Sheffield United, Nottingham Forest and Coventry all lag some way behind having all lost two or three more games than they’ve won against their fellow promotion contenders.
Town have been particularly strong away from home against the bigger sides: they’ve won four, drawn two and lost three, and none of those league defeats were to sides currently in the play-off places. They’ve actually taken more points per game on the road against the top 11 (1.56) than they have at home (1.20).
That does represent an unpleasant flipside for their hopes in the play-offs. Nottingham Forest are the only other current promotion hopefuls with a worse home record in those big games:
Forest have taken just 0.90 points per game. But three of those five defeats came before Chris Hughton was sacked towards the beginning of the season, immediately after which they came and won at the John Smith’s Stadium.
That might mean that Town’s best hope of reaching Wembley might be to keep things tight on their own turf and look to nick the two-legged fixture away from home.