Does form really go out of the window in play-offs?

AH, the play-offs. The time of year when the previous 46 games go out of the window, form is meaningless and chaos reigns supreme – doesn’t it? Probably not, as it turns out.

We crunched the numbers on the last 26 years’ worth of play-off campaigns to see whether a side’s final league table position or late-season form make an impact on how they are likely to get on in the play-offs, and the findings were very interesting.

As you might expect, the team that finishes third in the table does win the play-offs significantly more often than the other positions: 69.2% of third-placed sides at least make it to the final, with 38.5% of play-off finals since 1996 having been won by the third-placed team.

However, while the third-placed team does generally go on to make it to Wembley, their record in the final itself is scarcely any better than a coin flip – of the 18 third-placed sides to make it there over the past 26 years, ten have won and eight have lost.

There’s also a slight statistical quirk in that while the sides finishing fourth or fifth have made it through the semis almost equally, the fifth-placed side has a much better record in the finals themselves, winning seven of their 12 showpiece games; the side finishing fourth have won just four of their 13 finals. Even the side finishing sixth have better records than the side that ultimately finishes fourth, winning five of their nine finals.

Form accounts for that. The side that finishes third have generally finished the season best out of the four sides.

As it turns out, a side’s form over their final seven games of the season is a much stronger predictor of their play-off hopes than their final league table position. A whopping 14 of the last 26 finals (54%) have been won by the side who were in the best form going into the play-offs including all of the last four finals. Combine the final seven regular league games played by Fulham in 2018 and 2020, Aston Villa in 2019 and Brentford last year, and you’ll find just two defeats between them.

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