‘Under siege’ Tories aim to emphasise risk of electing Labour
Divided party shows little love for PM, but it remains unclear who could succeed him. By Hugo Gye, Eleanor Langford and Richard Vaughan
After a week in which Tory plotting reached fever pitch again, recent days have brought comparative calm to 10 Downing Street. Rishi Sunak was buoyed by a surprisingly large fall in inflation – and by the end of this week, the burning issue in Westminster was whether or not the new England football shirt is “woke”.
No one in the Conservative Party now seriously thinks the Prime Minister could be toppled in the near future – certainly not before local elections in May.
One government aide summed up the message: “Getting rid of the PM is just f**king mental, and the public will think we are even more mental than they do anyway.”
But that is not to say that everything is going right for Mr Sunak. If current polls hold, the Tories are still on course for an election wipeout of epic proportions, and week by week No 10 faces a string of challenges such as getting the Rwanda migration scheme up and running after two years of delays.
Veterans of the Boris Johnson era say the scene in Westminster now is eerily familiar to the way the ex-prime minister saw his political authority drain away in the first half of 2022. One of his former advisers told i: “I remember what it was like, just feeling constantly under siege – like every week you survived was a victory. And that’s what it looks like now.”
Ministers and party strategists believe their best chance of pulling off a shock Tory win is to emphasise the supposed risks of electing a Labour government.
“Everyone is f**ked off at the moment,” a No 10 source said. “They don’t like the Government
Kemi Badenoch is popular with the party membership, but less so with those within Parliament
– but they don’t like Keir Starmer either. I genuinely think that when we get into the campaign and the public starts paying attention, things will start to improve.”
But a minister commented: “Until recently I did think we could win the election, but now we would need everything to go right.
“And we would have to stop all the infighting… Some colleagues think that we could do with a rest by going into opposition – but we wouldn’t just be out for five years, we’d be out for 10 years.”
Another MP hit out at suggestions from some Tories that Mr Sunak should put an end to the party’s agonies by holding an election as soon as possible.
“I can’t understand why anyone would want to have an election while we’re 20 points behind,” they told i. “It’s like wrestling the pistol out of the executioner’s hand and pulling the trigger yourself.” Ministers have shied away from a pre-Easter showdown with the House of Lords over Rwanda – instead of trying to force the bill designed to get deportation flights going on to the statute book before Parliament starts a three-week break on Monday, the push and pull between the two chambers will not restart until mid-April.
For some MPs, the value of the policy is symbolic rather than practical – meaning they are unworried about the latest delay. “No one actually thinks the Rwanda flights will work in stopping the boats in the summer,” a backbencher argued.
“That’s not the point. It’s a wedge issue. It’s about being able to show to voters that we have a plan, and Labour don’t.”
The Prime Minister’s own inner circle remains fiercely loyal to him – many worked for him in the Treasury and shared the bruising experience of the leadership election where he lost to Liz Truss. But outside Downing Street, he has few firm supporters. “The
problem is a lot of people in the party just don’t like Rishi, dating back from when he was chancellor,” a government insider warned.
“If you’re talking to him about your own specialist area, then he sometimes acts like he knows more than you about it.”
One minister said: “It’s OK if Rishi has no real vision, which he
Rishi Sunak at the launch of the Tories’ local elections campaign in Heanor, Derbyshire, yesterday hasn’t, as long as he has people around him with vision. But he doesn’t have that either.” Thoughts are already turning to the future – with most Tories admitting it is likely that the party will be out of power by the end of this year and seeking a new leader (the fifth change in just over seven years, after Lord Cameron ruled the roost for 11 years). A former minister predicted: “The battle will be between Kemi [Badenoch], [James] Cleverly and [Grant] Shapps. And if Kemi gets to the membership, she’ll win.”
Others are less bullish about Ms Badenoch, arguing that the Business Secretary’s no-nonsense blunt demeanour too often shades into rudeness.
“She will struggle to get selected as leader because she’s not popular within the parliamentary party,” a fellow minister said. “A lot of her colleagues have only had one interaction with her and that was her putting them down.
“She thinks she’s always right, and if you don’t agree, then she thinks you just haven’t understood.” Another Tory insider summarised: “Kemi is just mean to people.”
Penny Mordaunt is another name often put in the frame. But one backbencher commented: “The only reason Penny wants to do this now is because she’s realised that after the general election she won’t win a leadership election.
“And if we go into it 20 per cent behind she’ll lose her seat anyway. Now is her only chance to become leader because after the election there’s no chance. I saw how her operation ran during the leadership contest and it was an absolute clusterf **k.”
They added: “The one who’s making the most manoeuvres is Grant Shapps. Everyone else is at least doing it relatively subtly. Grant isn’t being subtle. He’s constantly inviting people for cups of tea.” Mr Cleverly is seen by some as the best option to champion the centrist wing of the party.
Chatter about the potential return of Mr Johnson continues to rage, even though he is no longer an MP – though those who know him best insist he has no interest in returning to political office.
“For a lot of my voters Boris is just toxic, and Liz is toxic,” one MP said. “Whereas Rishi is our best asset.”