Reform is gaining momentum in tussle with Tories
Border Force staff at Heathrow vote to go on strike
POLITICS
In recent years, Tory MPs have become accustomed to bad polling. There has been no shortage of surveys and focus groups to suggest the Conservative Party is heading to an extinction-level event come the next election. It means that even a doomsday poll can these days be regarded as run of the mill. But that changed this week with a YouGov poll that made Tory MPs stop in their tracks.
It wasn’t so much Labour’s apparent 25-point lead that frightened MPs but the fact it put the Reform party on 15 points, a mere four points behind the Tories on 19 points. The worry is that it shows Rishi Sunak’s nightmare scenario of being squeezed on the right is fast becoming his reality. This time last year, Tory MPs were fairly relaxed about Reform. While some on the right would cite it as a concern, it was below 10 per cent in the polls.
As the Tory vote falls further, Reform is gaining momentum. The defection of Lee Anderson – after the Tories stripped him of the whip – means the party now can boast its first MP. What’s more, the Tories can’t exactly dismiss Anderson as a nobody given Sunak previously saw him as enough of an electoral asset to appoint him a deputy chairman. The MP for Ashfield who is a magnet for publicity is now a walking advert for Reform.
As well as leading to new
Miriam Cates is one of several Tory figures calling for a new strategy to tackle the rise of the Reform party members signing up to Reform, Anderson appears to have started a trend – with the Conservative candidate for the Greater Manchester mayoral election
Dan Barker defecting this week to the Reform party. Selected three months ago by the Tories, Barker said he was joining the “new home of conservatism”.
Reform figures have been speaking with other figures – including more than 10 MPs – about defecting. While those inside the party are keen to downplay expectations, they view the period soon after the May local elections as the most likely transfer time pre-election. “But we think actually most will come to us after the general election – realising they should have jumped sooner,” says a Reform figure.
For now, those viewed as the easiest to convince – and the focus – are Tory politicians in the “Red Wall” former Labour heartlands. Reform argue Sunak has little appeal here and CCHQ is more focused on stemming losses in the south.
Already Tory figures – such as Miriam Cates and Tory peer Lord Frost – are citing the rise of Reform as reason to rethink the strategy. As Frost puts it: “What is clear is that the current strategy is not working and that the situation is getting worse not better.” No 10 have no plans to rip up their approach – aides believe that as time goes on their message that their plan is working and Labour does not have one will start to cut through.
Yet there could still be an opportunity for those on the right of the party, worried about Reform, to have their say. The Tory manifesto is in its early stages. The five areas of focus where MPs will be invited to input are public service reform, the union, net zero, the economy and crime. But one area that Downing Street has yet made no key decision on is the European Convention on Human Rights – partly because the Rwanda policy remains up in the air. MPs and former ministers argue a pledge to leave (whether through a review or referendum) the convention would help with the Reform vote. “Getting Reform below 10 per cent is key to stopping a wipeout,” says a Tory figure.
But one part of the Reform message, any manifesto or strategy will struggle to neutralise is an anti-Westminster sentiment. As the pollster Lord Hayward recently put it: “There’s an anti-politician frame of mind at the moment and it will benefit what I call the disruptors.” While Reform has policies, a large part of its message is simply that it wants to destroy the Tories.
Katy Balls is political editor of ‘The Spectator’
Border Force staff at Heathrow Airport in London have voted to strike in a dispute over their shift patterns.
The Public and Commercial Services Union (PCS) said
600 of its members, who carry out immigration controls and passport checks, voted 90 per cent in favour of taking strike action.
No dates have been announced for any industrial action, but walkouts could begin as soon as 8 April, the union said.
The PCS said its members are angry at planned alterations to their shift patterns that would have a detrimental effect on them and leave nearly 250 without a job on passport control.
If they refuse to accept the new contracts, they would be forced to seek jobs elsewhere in the Home Office, said the PCS. PCS general secretary Fran Heathcote said: “It’s clear from today’s ballot result how angry and determined members are.”