‘Ungovernable’ Tories could turn on Sunak after May elections
Party braced for electoral disaster in council ballots. By Chloe Chaplain
The Conservatives are bracing themselves for electoral disaster on 2 May. With more than 2,000 seats in 107 English councils up for grabs, there is plenty at stake. The problem for the Tories is not just their poor standing in the national opinion polls, but the fact that the last time these seats were contested the party was in a very different place.
In the May 2021 local elections (delayed a year because of the pandemic), the Conservatives’ 2019 general election win was still a recent memory and the Tories were enjoying a polling bounce from the successful Covid vaccine roll-out.
In the end, they made significant gains, which some analysts suggested could translate to a 40 per cent national share of the vote against 30 per cent for Labour.
On the same day, the party achieved a hugely symbolic victory in the Hartlepool by-election, winning the seat from Labour for the first time in its history.
This time around, the tables have turned: Labour is more than 20 points ahead in the polls, and the Conservatives will go into the local elections following a string of by-election losses.
One Tory councillor told i that “everyone is depressed” and described private squabbles between activists over just how bad things have become.
They said it would be “insane” to change party leader, but added: “I think people may push for change if Reform catch up to the Tories in polling. The right of the party will be pissed and out for blood.”
“Rishi isn’t perfect – but the issue is, we’re seen as not in control. Will a new leader change that? No. Unfortunately the party has become ungovernable. It’s obvious to see advisers, MPs and ministers are preparing for an opposition leadership contest.”
It’s not all doom and gloom. One MP said “it is very clear from the doorsteps the elections will be fought on local matters” such as low-traffic zones, and dismissed the suggestion that bad results could spell national danger for the Tories.
However Chris Hopkins, the political research director at the polling group Savanta, said that the Conservatives should brace for an uncomfortable election night.
Predicting local election results from national polling is difficult – not least because of some boundary changes in local authorities.
But Mr Hopkins said: “The Tories are obviously polling a lot worse now than they were at this point in 2021 when these seats were last contested and therefore they’d need to outperform their current polling significantly to avoid a ‘bad night’.”
Another polling guru, Professor Sir John Curtice, said: “We know the Tories will not lose 1,000 seats because this is a much smaller round of council elections. What I will be looking for is whether or not the Tories are doing better or worse than last year.
“So, is it the case that what the polls are saying is matched in the vote share? The polls show the Tory position has weakened and therefore, rather than seeing signs of recovery, will we see they have gone backwards?
“Or, actually, does it seem as though – despite what the polls are saying – they are doing somewhat better? With local elections don’t focus on the seats – look at the votes and you find out who is up and who is down.”
There have been suggestions that the direct mayoral elections, also taking place on 2 May, may offer the Conservatives some respite. But Sir John said that the Tory Mayor of the West Midlands, Andy Street, was “vulnerable” and that Ben Houchen, the Mayor of Tees Valley, could also struggle despite his personal appeal.
Both Sir John (inset) and Lord Hayward, a Tory peer and elections expert, said the great unknown was how much impact the smaller parties, such as Reform UK, would have on the vote share. Reform is not fielding a full slate of candidates in the locals and is instead focusing on the London mayoral and general election. The Liberal Democrats are hoping to make gains in the West Country, in Dorset, as well as in Hertfordshire, Tunbridge Wells and Stockport.
Sources said these areas were important for the party’s narrative ahead of the general election to show that the trend of support in target areas is growing. But it is the metropolitan areas – in particular across the North and the Midlands – that could be some of the most interesting to watch.
Lord Hayward highlighted Mr Street and Mr Houchen as key results for the Conservatives. He cited Dudley and Walsall councils – both led by the Conservatives
– as others to watch in marginal seats. Burnley, Bolton and Sheffield councils, which are Labour-run, are also areas to watch to see how well Sir Keir Starmer’s party does.
In the South, Lord Hayward said Swindon, Wokingham, Bristol, Basildon and Reigate and Banstead were notable because they are in areas that overlap with constituencies targeted by Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
A Liberal Democrat source said: “If last year was more of a ‘Blue Wall’ set of local elections this is a ‘Red Wall’ focused one.
“We expect the Tories to come under pressure from the Labour Party and Reform might be able to pick up some votes but I can’t see them doing that well.
“Generally, I would expect the Conservatives to have a terrible night and that could push some of the right voters closer to Reform.”
Lord Hayward described parties like Reform as “disrupters”, and said that their rise indicated a wider trend that could prove pivotal in elections this year: apathy.
“The disaffection with politicians in general is reflected not only in the Tory party, but also in the uncertainty towards the Labour Party,” he said.
“And the willingness to consider the disrupter groups has indicated a disinterest in British politics.”
Disaffection with politicians in general is reflected in the Tories and in uncertainty towards Labour