Gunners face testing times as fixture logjam takes effect
Arsenal could play as many as nine games in April in a run that will be pivotal in their trophy haul at the end of the season. The Gunners are currently on track for a famous domestic and European double. They are top of the Premier League table on goal difference and into a first Champions League quarter-final for 14 years.
But their squad depth and stamina will be stretched to its extremities as they play virtually every three days in the penultimate month of the season.
Perhaps most crucially, the north London derby against Tottenham Hotspur will come at the end of run of five games in 15 days or even 14 days, depending on European results. In the same period, Spurs will not play a single game, mainly due to their lack of involvement in continental football.
April was the month last year when Arsenal’s title challenge started to fall apart, as draws with Liverpool, West Ham United and Southampton preceded a 4-1 defeat by Manchester City that finally eradicated their eight-point lead at the top of the table.
Having been knocked out of Europe by Sporting Lisbon in March, April was not the same logjam as it is this time around, but winning only one of their five matches irrevocably wrecked their title challenge.
A European blessing or a curse?
A two-legged quarter-final against Bayern Munich obviously adds to the congestion, although clearly Arsenal would not swap it for the world after 10 years away from the last eight in Europe.
But there will still be worries that, even with a relatively short trip to Munich, there could be a European hangover.
However, according to a 20-year study by Kitman Labs, a sports science and analytics company who work across the Premier League on injury and medical data for players, the congestion of a midweek European game actually has limited impact on outcomes in the league on the following weekends.
In fact, the paper notes that the data around fixture congestion could even be used to motivate players and prove to them that they are no more likely to struggle a few days after a European fixture than on any other day.
How have Arsenal ended up with such congestion?
Their progress in the Champions League is not the only reason for the fixture pile-up.
The Gunners have also been forced to accept a rearranged game against Chelsea which had to be moved because the Blues reached the quarter-finals of the FA Cup.
And the north London derby date will not even be finalised until the middle of April, though it will be on the weekend of 27-28 April: if Arsenal are drawn in a Champions League semi-final on 30 April, the derby will be moved back 24 hours.
How will the Gunners cope?
Manager Mikel Arteta will be praying that the injury which forced Bukayo Saka (left) out of the England squad is no more than a niggle. The winger is not only Arsenal’s top scorer and assistmaker, but his absence would also put pressure on the Spaniard’s ability to rotate his forward line through the title run-in.
He arrived at St George’s Park, according to Gareth Southgate, with a hamstring problem – the type of issue from which Arteta would probably prefer to ease him back. But the Gunners will return from the international break with a bang against City, a game he will also dearly want Saka to be part of.
Rotation in the front three will be feasible if Gabriel Jesus has been able to put the international break to good use: the Brazilian forward has not played 90 minutes since 28 December and missed five games with a knee problem in February.
And further back, Arsenal have begun to show depth: while an injury or fatigue to Declan Rice would be hard to stomach, the fullback roles have become subject to competition for places between Jakub Kiwior, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ben White and, at least in the early part of the season, Oleksandr Zinchenko. Though the centre-back pairing of Gabriel and William Saliba is rarely rotated, White and Kiwior have slotted in ably – while Jurrien Timber, the summer signing who suffered a cruciate ligament injury on debut, is nearing a long-awaited comeback.