Moscow attack investigators focus on the rise of Isis-K
As Russia’s siloviki (security forces) grappled with the aftermath of last week’s deadly attack at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall music venue, questions emerged about its instigators.
It is now widely acknowledged that Washington had issued warnings to the Kremlin about a potential attack by Isis militants.
The attack has reignited interest in Islamic State Khorasan Province (also known as Isis-K, ISKP or IS-K), a regional Isis affiliate focused on Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan and Central Asia.
The Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and the subsequent Taliban resurgence in 2021 served as a catalyst for Isis-K, prompting the group to amplify its recruitment campaign, particularly targeting people in Central Asia.
Within Afghanistan, the group exploited the discord between the Taliban and Afghan Salafi communities, presenting itself as a viable alternative for those disenchanted with Taliban governance.
This recruitment strategy broadened into Central Asia, where it leveraged digital platforms to propagate its ideology and recruit fighters.
A considerable contingent of Islamist radicals from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan form the core membership of Isis-K.
The group also extends to peripheral states, including India, the Maldives, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, attracting recruits with motivations that vary from religious to separatist, from seeking revenge to financial incentives.
Isis-K demonstrates a sophisticated understanding of revenue generation, employing a variety of methods ranging from kidnapping-for-ransom activities to exploiting conflict minerals and soliciting donations. It has adopted a decentralised financial structure that facilitates its funding for activities including operations, training and logistics.
Three months before the Moscow attack, three Tajik men, allegedly linked to Isis-K, were arrested over a foiled attempt to attack Cologne Cathedral in Germany. Concerns are now mounting over the threat of Isis continuing its recruitment and extending its operational reach within the UK and Europe.
While Isis-K’s attack in Moscow may have established its presence as a formidable entity, it is equally necessary to interpret the attack as an attempt at capacity signalling, aimed at obscuring the reality that it is, in fact, floundering at home.