Any retaliation could spark changes to nuclear policy

A large-scale Israeli attack on Iranian territory could accelerate the country’s drive for nuclear weapons, according to regional security experts.

Dr Raz Zimmt, a security analyst and Iran researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said Iran does not yet seem to have changed its nuclear posture.

“They are satisfied right now with becoming a threshold nuclear state,” he said, citing Israeli estimates that Iran would require between six and 24 months to produce a nuclear weapon.

But that could change, he added. “If we see some kind of Israeli attack against the nuclear programme in Iran, that might have some impact on Iran’s decision to break out.

“If Iran is facing a situation which it considers to be an existential threat, it could certainly take more risks and go there.”

A solo Israeli attack on nuclear sites is unlikely as Israel lacks the capabilities to significantly damage them without US support, the analyst added.

But even a strike against less sensitive targets carries the risk of provoking a change in nuclear policy, said Dr Abdolrasool Divsallar, a regional security analyst and researcher of weapons of mass destruction at the Washington DC-based Middle East Institute.

“Any sort of Israeli strike inside Iran will take this risk,” he said.

“If it causes major damage to Iran’s conventional capabilities, or weakens it in a way that seems be unrepairable… then we are in a really dangerous moment…

“That may push the country toward rethinking its deterrence posture.”

Ali Vaez, Iran director at the independent Crisis Group thinktank, agreed.

“If Iran’s regional and conventional deterrence prove futile in protecting the Iranian homeland, it is not far-fetched to imagine that Tehran will start looking for alternatives,” he told i.

“Given its proximity to nuclear weapons capability, Iran might choose to cross the Rubicon and develop the ultimate deterrent.

“As such, the more Israel succeeds in weakening Iran, the more it fails with turning Iran into a bigger threat.”