West must be frank and tell Israelis that Netanyahu’s time is up
It does not bode well when extremist members of the Israeli or Iranian governments recommend “going crazy” as a policy gambit towards the other. The result would be a major war in the Middle East, the immediate effect of which would be to send the price of oil through the roof were the Straits of Hormuz to be blocked in addition to ongoing problems in the Red Sea – problems which Western intervention has made worse.
Both sides can claim a win. Israel showed the resilience of its pan-regional Middle East air defence, and would have been pleased at the alacrity with which countries – which have been critical of its Gaza campaign – stepped up to militarily support it. The allies seemed to overlook the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had not given them any advance warning of the Damascus strike which touched off this latest cycle of violence.
Even better, from Netanyahu’s point of view, the allies swiftly exchanged their moralising crocodile tears about war crimes in Gaza for collective ingestion of the crudest Israeli propaganda about Iran. Just listen to how Lord Cameron, an allegedly stern critic of Israeli war-making, sounded on Radio 4’s Today programme.
While Netanyahu’s war cabinet ponders if and how to retaliate, the campaign in Gaza grinds on at lesser intensity. But Netanyahu has not achieved his objectives there.
As long as Yahya Sinwar, his fellow Hamas leaders and thousands of their fighters remain alive, Netanyahu cannot declare victory. As long as that remains the case, Sinwar can maintain that, despite catastrophic losses, Hamas has survived. While Netanyahu probably realises that his long-time goal of America finishing a war with Iran that he starts will elude him, he also has people like his National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, urging him to go for the kill against Hamas (and Hezbollah too).
That makes it all too likely that Netanyahu will launch a final assault on remnant Hamas in Rafah. A full-blown invasion of southern Lebanon would revive too many old ghosts. In that sense, the threat from Tehran is useful since Israel’s Western allies will swallow their crocodile tears and let him get away with it.
Anyone serious about restoring peace in this region may have to undergo a fundamental rethink.
Until the West has the guts to tell Israelis to move beyond Netanyahu – whose only policy is perpetual war – up to and including restricting arms sales, there is little prospect of a meaningful ceasefire in Gaza, or avoidance of war with Iran. The war in Gaza is the key to why Iran and its confederates are fighting on multiple fronts. To pretend otherwise is frankly delusory.
The US and Britain have very live memories of rushing into costly wars in places they do not understand, wars which became massively unpopular at home too.
Getting involved in a bigger Israeli war with Iran would be a disaster for Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak – not least because of the economic ill-effects but also because it would expose their blatant double standards in apparently giving a “democratic” rogue state carte blanche to do what it likes.
No war is going to rescue Sunak from his fate, but in Biden’s case, another war in the Middle East would probably guarantee the election of Trump in his isolationist peacemaker mode. That would be some price to pay to keep Netanyahu in power.
Getting involved in a bigger Israeli war with Iran would be a disaster for Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak