‘I’ve seen Iran’s nuclear HQ – these are the risks if Israel tries to destroy it’
Tehran has taken measures to protect the potential target where it enriches uranium, reports Rob Hastings
“Don’t take any photos. The guards will be watching. If they see you holding a camera, they’ll probably shoot us.” That was my guide’s strict instruction as our minibus slowly approached the Natanz uranium enrichment plant in the heart of the Iranian desert, during my trip to the country in 2014.
You may think it odd that a public road would run within a few hundred metres of such a sensitive area. We were driving on Freeway 7 from the city of Isfahan to the ancient village of Abyaneh, and the quickest route happened to pass Natanz. One thing I remember is the sight of anti-aircraft guns pointing towards the sky.
If Israel attacks Iran in revenge for its drone and missile assault at the weekend – following Israel’s own strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus – then Natanz is likely to be among the top desired targets for its jets.
Rafael Grossi, the directorgeneral of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on Monday that the Islamic regime in Tehran closed its nuclear sites at the weekend because of “security considerations”. Asked if he believed that Israel may attack the facilities, the head of the UN watchdog replied: “We are always concerned about this possibility.”
Natanz has long been central to Iran’s nuclear programme. It is where centrifuges spin uranium gas at extremely high speed to separate a lighter form – uranium-235 – from a heavier variant. It is the uranium235 isotope that can be split to produce energy.
The natural amount of uranium235 in the element is about 0.7 per cent. If this is enriched to just under 4 per cent, it can fuel nuclear reactors. It needs to be far more
highly enriched, to 90 per cent, for use in a nuclear weapon.
Iran was restricted to enrichment of 3.67 per cent in the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated while Barack Obama was US president. But after the US withdrew in 2018 under Donald Trump, Iran surpassed that level – and Mr Grossi said in February it was enriching at up to 60 per cent.
Israel, which is believed to have nuclear weapons but has always refused to confirm this, has been warning of Iran developing its own uranium warheads for years, despite consistent denials from the Tehran regime, so it is no secret that Natanz would be a prime target if the stand-off escalates.
In 2010, at least 1,000 of the 9,000 centrifuges which enrich uranium at Natanz were destroyed in a cyber attack. The Stuxnet virus, labelled as “the world’s first digital weapon”, reportedly sabotaged the cylindrical tubes by manipulating their valves to increase the pressure inside. American officials later admitted that the US and Israel were jointly responsible.
In 2012, one of the directors at Natanz, the chemistry expert Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, was killed in a car bomb. Iran blamed Israel and the US, which both denied responsibility. But it happened less than 24 hours after Israel warned that Iran could face “unnatural” events, thought to mean a covert anti-nuclear campaign.
Three other Iranian nuclear scientists were assassinated between 2010 and 2020. Those killings have been widely blamed on Israel.
The site suffered from an explosion in 2020, leaving a hole in what had been a centrifuge assembly workshop. Sabotage was blamed by many analysts who doubted it could be an accident.
Another cyber attack hit Natanz in 2021, apparently cutting off power to the centrifuges. This time Israel appeared to implicitly confirm that it was responsible. US intelligence believed it would delay Iran’s nuclear programme by nine months.
Trying to destroy Natanz using bombs or missiles remains unprecedented. But would it even be possible? When I drove past that day in 2014, the road entrance was an arch decorated with two pictures of the ayatollahs who have ruled Iran as supreme leaders since the Islamic coup of 1979: the regime’s founder, Ruhollah Khomeini, and current chief Ali Khamenei.
Behind a wire fence stretching across the sand for more than a mile was a complex of low-rise buildings, standing above fortified underground laboratories where scientists produce nuclear fuel.
Since then huge construction efforts have been invested at Natanz to bury its equipment even deeper under the desert.
Four huge holes up to eight metres tall and six metres wide have been dug into Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, or “Pickaxe mountain”. These are thought to be entrances to a tunnel network between 80 metres and 100 metres underground, perhaps even deeper.
Experts believe this work may be making Natanz “impervious to Israeli and even American bombs”.
Jonathan Lord, a former US defence official, told the US publication Foreign Policy this week: “The only thing worse than Iran being where it potentially is with its nuclear programme is if Israel took a shot to take it out and it didn’t succeed.”
Huge construction efforts have been invested at Natanz to bury its equipment even deeper