The players Boehly should spend his big Blues bucks on
Chelsea’s squad have had an end-of-season rally for Mauricio Pochettino and could well sneak into Europe next season. If Tottenham Hotspur continue their collapse, fifth place is just in reach. More realistically, they are competing with Newcastle United and Manchester United for sixth.
According to data from Analytics FC, a data-driven sports consultancy that has worked with some of the biggest clubs in Europe, they could even have finished higher this season. “Chelsea can feel very unlucky [to be where they are],” Analytics FC data expert Alex Stewart told i. “The underlying numbers, as expressed through expected goal difference, have them in fourth.”
They “have some obvious issues” on the pitch, Stewart says. “They don’t generate enough shots and are too low for passes into the penalty area and passes that generate shots. They can control games relatively well into the final third but need to get the ball into more dangerous areas more often, and then do more with it.”
Analytics FC scoured its databases for players who fit Chelsea’s profile in the areas they are expected to target, identifying players no older than 27 who have played 500 or more minutes in the last year.
Attacking midfield
Conor Gallagher has flourished under Pochettino but, as a homegrown academy player who will generate pure profit, many are resigned to him leaving this summer, with Spurs touted as a potential new club.
Analytics FC searched for midfielders who can mimic what Gallagher does: players who score highly in shooting, creating, passing, high regains, tackles and interceptions. Bayer Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz and Bayern Munich’s Jamal Musiala were flagged highly, but would be hugely expensive and possibly, due to financial restrictions, out of Chelsea’s reach.
More realistic is Monaco’s Maghnes Akliouche, who has seven goals and three assists this season. “The 22-year-old is a very proactive defender and has played off the right, which could allow Cole Palmer to come inside,” Stewart says. “He could up his creative passing but as a goal-threat right winger or attacking midfielder with high defensive output who fits Chelsea’s profile, he fits.”
It’s worth remembering that Hakim Ziyech has been on loan at Galatasaray and will free up significant wages when he leaves permanently, also giving Chelsea room to manoeuvre. By January he will be able to agree free transfers to clubs outside the Premier League.
Centre-back
When Thiago Silva returns to Fluminense at the end of the season it will leave a gaping hole in ability and experience.
“Chelsea have some real prospective quality at centre back,
but the departure of Thiago Silva creates some room to take on a prospect who can also challenge for a starting spot,” Stewart says. “Ousmane Diomande is a superb ball-playing defender who can also mix it physically.”
Even at 20 years old, it is believed he could challenge for a starting spot. The Sporting centre-back is in the top five percent for one-v-one defending and aerial duals in the Portuguese top flight, according to Analytics FC data, and he is in the top 10 per cent for short and linebreaking passes. “It’s a heady mix and he will be on every big club’s radar,” Stewart adds.
Silva may not be the only centreback departing. The club could use another academy graduate, Trevoh Chalobah, to raise money.
Two other centre-back options include Lille’s Leny Yoro, who is only 18 but has “incredible levels of athleticism and a great footballing brain” for such a young player. Stewart adds: “It would take a huge bid, but Yoro could be an elite centre back for the next 15 years.”
Among more experienced defenders, Emmanuel Agbadou, a 26-year-old at Reims, is performing very well – featuring in the top 20 per cent of Ligue 1 centre-backs in every important metric.
Striker
Chelsea seem certain to be in the market for a striker. Nicolas Jackson has had an OK first season, but at the very least will require some competition.
Despite not playing for Chelsea for two years, Romelu Lukaku is still on the books and they will be hoping to secure a permanent move away for a player who still has two years remaining on his contract. That would free up wages, but finding a buyer for Armando Broja, who decided to go on loan to Fulham in January but has failed to score, would unlock more academy player pure profit.
Brentford’s Ivan Toney and Napoli’s Victor Osimhen will be the strikers making big waves this summer with moves, but can Chelsea afford them? If not, there’s value to be found elsewhere.
“If Chelsea are looking for a high-shot volume impact striker to provide competition [for Jackson], 24-goal Loïs Openda at RB Leipzig looks superb,” Stewart says. “Lens sold him after one season and 21 league goals, and he’s a rapid, predatory goal-getter. Don’t expect much in the air, but for the kind of more direct football Chelsea should be moving towards, he’s ideal.”
Other potential options include Viktor Gyokeres, who has scored 35 goals for Sporting Lisbon this season – “there’s no better striker in Portugal at the moment” – although there is concern the former Coventry City man could take time to adapt to the Premier League.
“Keep an eye too on Hoffenheim’s 21-year-old Max Beier, who can play off the left as well,” Stewart says. “Our model loves his finishing, and he ranks very highly among Bundesliga strikers for forward passes received and expected goals.”