BLUES dominant, Ukip faLL and yoUng gEt EngagEd
The Conservatives remain the dominant political force in Kent, notwithstanding events in Canterbury. Its majorities in most seats remained broadly intact with the average swing against them to Labour at 2.5%.
Labour are still some way short of representing a significant threat in the county to the Tories. It secured second place in 16 seats after being leapfrogged by Ukip in 2015, but failed to push the Conservatives close in any. The days when it held half the seats in Kent are a distant memory.
Ukip looks like a spent force in the county where it first planted its purple flag. Hard to see where it goes from here after its vote in the county dropped like a stone by a staggering 62% on 2015. That followed the loss of all 17 of its county councillors in May. On the other hand, there’s always the ‘Farage factor’ to consider.
The Liberal Democrats much-vaunted resurgence in Kent failed to materialise. It had hoped to benefit by positioning itself as the pro-European centre ground party – which Labour and the Conservatives have vacated. It failed.
The impact of younger voters was underestimated by all the parties – again, with the exception of Labour in Canterbury – and the fact that they had been energised by Jeremy Corbyn. From being disinterested in 2015, they became engaged in 2017 in a way nobody really grasped. It won’t be a mistake the parties will make again.
Social media was not decisive in the results but it was used less effectively by the Conservatives despite the huge sums the party spent nationally on Facebook.
Kent has always been critical in determining who gets the keys to Downing Street but was bypassed by all the main parties’ battle buses and big hitters. VIP visits don’t on their own change results but on the other hand, to ignore the 17 seats completely was a mistake.