Change to 2m rule takes step forward

If there is one thing which is leaving all sectors of the hospitality industry scratching their heads it is the issue of the two-metre social distancing rules.

Just how do you make the sums stack up when your capacity is slashed - especially when coming off the back of an enforced three-month closure?

But there are clear signs already the direction of travel is to bring the UK guidance more in line with other nations and reduce its guidance.

And such a step could mean the difference between life and death for many pubs, restaurants and cafes who are desperate to start trading, safely, once again.

Industry body UK Hospitality, says at two-metres, revenues would plunge to 30% while one metre would be closer to 75%.

The review was first announced by Chancellor Rishi Sunak this weekend, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson later saying a fall in cases means there could be “margin for manoeuvre”.

He said: “As we get the numbers down, so it becomes one in 1,000, one in 1,600, maybe even fewer, your chances of being two metres, or one metre, or even a foot away from somebody who has the virus is obviously going down statistically, so you start to build some more margin for manoeuvre.”

Downing Street confirmed on Monday the review was expected to be complete ahead of the proposed July 4 reopening.

Currently, the World Health Organisation recommends a minimum of one-metre - a rule applied in France, China and Denmark.

The UK is alongside Canada and Spain with two-metres. But it could opt for a compromise.

Countries such as Germany, Italy, Greece and Australia all toe the line at 1.5-metres.

While the government has been “led by the science” on many of its decision, any changes are likely to be more political - and very much aimed at giving the economy the room to breathe - especially in the hospitality sector - while still maintaining social distancing.

The government’s scientific advisors have said reducing the distance between people increases the chance of passing on the virus some ten times.

‘I can’t see us going back to menus. I think when they’re online and there’s an easy order and pay link we’ll all move to that’

“You have a very strange dynamic in that going out for a meal or drink with friends and family is number two in terms of what people most want at this moment in time, behind seeing their family and a sense of freedom, “says Jonathan Neame, chief executive of Faversham’s Shepherd Neame.

“But the thing they are most fearful of doing is exactly that too.”

The brewery has more than 300 pubs and is lobbying hard for the government to reduce the two-metre social distancing rules to one-metre, in line with World Health Organisation guidelines.

Mr Neame adds: “The difference is that at two metres it is estimated 30% of pubs in the UK are viable and at one metre 80% are.

“You only have to put a four-metre stick across your shoulders and walk around a 16th century pub to understand the complexity of this.”

He says Shepherd Neame pubs and restaurants will see a phased return and is waiting on government guidance as to which of its establishments it can open first.

If only those with garden areas can open first, he believes about 25% of its properties will be open - but if the distancing guidelines are reduced to one metre, then between 80-90% could be trading again by the end of July.

But he warns it will be a differscatter ent experience.

“Customers need to know what to expect,” he adds.

“We’re going to have a more limited range of food and drinks initially because of the pressures on the supply chain.

“Equally, we will be moving to contactless and cash-free payments.

“There’s an obligation to take cash if no other option, but clearly we wish to persuade people to move in that direction.

“Table service will be in our outlets and we need a degree of patience from customers. We will do our best to train staff in new ways of working, but things may just take a little longer.”

He also says people visiting its restaurants can bid farewell to menus and other ‘high-touch’ items “for the foreseeable”. And he believes using digital apps may not just be a temporary alternative, but could replace printed products going forward.

He adds: “I can’t see us going back to menus. I think when they’re online and there’s an easy order and pay link we’ll all move to that.”

And in a more upbeat note, he believes the way forward may not be as unfamiliar as we all fear.

He explains: “You have to make it clear your outlet is not about range or price or offer, as most of those will be severely limited at the early stages because of the supply chain.

“It will be much more about making sure your staff and customers are safe.

“Once people have crossed the threshold for the first time, I think consumer attitudes will change quickly and they will quickly relax.

“I’m not completely persuaded that the ‘new normal’ will be that different from the old normal in the fullness of time.”

Shepherd Neame chief executive Jonathan Neame