A long and difficult Brexit ahead for UK

CITY VIEW

Readers of Canterbury MP Julian Brazier’s recent letters to this newspaper could be forgiven for believing that Brexit was done and dusted but he knows very well the process of leaving the EU hasn’t even started.

All we have so far is a leave vote in an advisory national referendum in which Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain.

The Article 50 trigger has not been pulled so negotiations have not even begun.

The prime minister says this will not be until 2017 at the earliest.

So if negotiations take two years, it will not be before 2019 at least when Brexit can be said to be completed.

The cabinet is made of remainers and leavers and I suspect the sugar and sweet that has united them during the parliamentary summer recess could become a war zone once Article 50 is triggered and detailed negotiations get under way.

This process could also be deferred because of elections in France and Germany during the latter part of next year.

The results could have a major impact on the political forces shaping the future of Europe and will affect detailed negotiations between the UK and the other 27 EU members.

All these uncertainties mean that none of us, including Mr Brazier, has any idea what will be the outcome for several years.

Only in five years’ time will we be able to assess the impact of new tariffs, trading agreements, investment patterns and the free movement of labour.

If the hardline Brexiteers have their way on freedom of movement, the impact on the Canterbury economy could be severe.

The district has an ageing population with a growing number of older single men and women living alone.

Where will social services and care agencies recruit their staff?

Maybe greater job opportunities, on the basic living wage, for university graduates with first class honours degrees burdened with debt? I know some in these jobs already.

Equally healthcare and medical treatment. Take a visit to any of the hospitals in east Kent and count the percentage of non-uk staff providing the medical, nursing and support services.

Contrary to popular pub bar stool chat, it is they that provide the health services. It is a net gain for the UK.

How will the hospitality and leisure sector cope? It is a growing part of the east Kent economy and already has acute staff shortages.

It is dependent on EU workers for its viability. Will these shortages become even worse if free movement of labour is abolished?

Do I see queues of young UK men and women asking for jobs fruit picking and working on the farms in the area?

Without EU labour, the fruit grown in our orchards would literally rot.

A hardline Brexit of the kind proposed by Mr Brazier and his friends would hit the UK agricultural sector hard and also lead to increases in food prices in the supermarkets.

The introduction of any kind of work permit system is going to impose a huge bureaucratic nightmare on the small businesses that dominate the Canterbury retail, hospitality and horticultural sectors.

Canterbury and Kent are probably more embedded in the European economy than any other UK region with the exception of London.

We can only hope that Mr Brazier and his hard-liner Brexit colleagues have detailed policies for dealing with the potential disruption on local jobs and opportunities that leaving the EU will inevitably create.