PM hopes election result will unite party over Brexit

Christ Church lecturer Lieberman examines the ‘surprises’ of the snap election announcement

It is an interesting time in politics. On Tuesday, Downing Street announced an 11.15am doorstep press conference, prompting speculation an early general election would be called. Performing a neat U-turn on earlier statements, Theresa May did not disappoint.

The snap element of this decision has taken the UK by surprise. There are two reasons for this: first, May has specifically and repeatedly stated that no general election should or would be called until due in 2020; second, and indeed rather more surprising than a Conservative Party leader experiencing a change of mind, is that the Fixed Term Parliaments Act was passed in 2011 to prevent this happening.

Another surprise is the lack of opposition to this decision. Indeed, by Tuesday afternoon Labour had come out in favour of an early election – classing it as an opportunity to get to the root of important current issues such as education and health spending.

The Liberal Democrats immediately responded positively, glad to be presented with an unexpected opportunity to rebrand as the choice for proEuropean voters whose bad memories of the great coalition-experiment have now been overshadowed by 12 months of political craziness.

A third surprise concerns Scotland. The Tories have long been unpopular north of the border, and a recent lack of sensitivity concerning Brexit and a second independence referendum is unlikely to have altered the opinion of the average Scot towards the Westminster government.

Herein lies the possibility of an SNP and Lib Dem yellow wash of the Scottish constituencies. A confirmed lack of mandate for the Tory government in Scotland would surely provide a clear boost to the SNP’S request for a second independence referendum, which would open the door for either the break-up of the Union, or a huge amount of resentment.

Less a surprise, and more a “what are we actually voting for this time” is the question of whether this is a second Brexit referendum in disguise. Indeed, May’s speech announcing her intention spoke at length about the UK’S planned exit from the EU. So how does an early general election help her in her planned exit strategy?

May told us that this is the time to unite the people of the UK and to unite the people of Westminster on the issue of Brexit.

By positioning herself as the leader for Brexit, and the Tories as the party for Brexit, in the event of the landslide she hopes for in June then her hard Brexit plan is legitimised.

Indeed, even if the Conservative Party manages only to increase its majority by a small margin, she can claim popular support for whichever Brexit plan she outlines in the run up to the election.

A general election will legitimise her position as Prime Minister, important given that she did not lead her party into the last election, and even more important given that she must now lead her country through the greatest constitutional change it has seen.

More importantly, however, than the garnering of electoral support, which indeed she can claim already following the referendum result last June, Theresa May must hope that the results of a general election will unite her own party towards Brexit.

An early election can provide an opportunity to clear away dead wood, to re-organise cabi- net and government and to rid the party of dissenting voices.

Our Prime Minister certainly caught us on the backfoot, having categorically stated several times that no election would be held until 2020.

But is this a surprise? No, we cannot class it as surprising. Politicians generally, Conservative politicians more specifically, and Theresa May herself, are well known for performing 180-degree, and on occasions 360-degree, turns on all sorts of policy decisions.

Should we have expected the Fixed Term Act to prevent this from happening? Perhaps, yes. However, to hold an early general election takes only the assent of a two thirds majority of Parliament. Following her success in the Article 50 Parliamentary Vote, this was a short hurdle for May.

Is this a good time for a general election? For the hardBrexit faction of the Conservative Party, yes. For the dissenting Tories, the divided Labour Party and the all but annihilated Liberal Democrats, no.

Which of course makes it even more tempting.