Interesting times ahead after this unexpected election

The Conservatives will probably win today but not with the majority predicted up to last week by most political commentators. There is so much uncertainty. What will be the impact of the horrendous terrorist attacks in Manchester and London on voting behaviour?

The opinion polls have also produced unprecedented readings. The Tory lead has been reduced from around 20% six weeks ago to roughly neck and neck today. Corbyn has had a good campaign and much better than most people expected. He has shown himself to have leadership qualities that has surprised most of us.

He appeals to the personal agendas of young people and if their support can get them off Twitter and Facebook and into the voting booths they may produce some interesting results in many constituencies, particularly in London and the south east where young peoples’ incomes are squeezed, student debt is high and support for ‘Remain is high.

Theresa May has had a poor campaign and has had nothing much to say except for the need for “strong and stable leadership”. And of course there have been the U-turns that have undermined her slogan.

As a regular contributor to a BBC radio phone-in programme, I was amazed last week by the sheer anger of listeners over the the Conservative’s social care proposals and the May U-turn. One caller after another, all selfdeclared Tory voters, said that for the first time they would not be voting for the party. They were mainly over 50s men and women that make up the core of Conservative supporters.

She seems to have lost credibility and by last weekend people were beginning to question whether she has the authority and assertiveness to strike a tough deal with the EU over Brexit.

Someone that refuses to engage in TV debates is bound to undermine personal credibility. She has not taken the strain of the campaign well.

More than two million people registered to vote during the last days before the deadline. More than half of these are under 25, exactly the sorts of people that are likely to vote for Corbyn over May. Almost 50% of voters under 40 are now graduates. They expect convincing arguments from candidates and they scrutinise manifestos in detail. They are not going to be told how to vote by the tabloid newspapers as may have been the case 20 years ago. They make up their own minds and in any case there is social media that offers ‘alternative’ analysis and political views.

But we should not underestimate the continuing influence of the national print media in shaping popular attitudes. The tabloids, with the exception of the Daily Mirror, have transformed their front pages. During this campaign they have become little more than billboards for the Tories.

Only the local press, radio and TV have stuck to objectivity and sustained a democratic approach to the key issues

This election has been all about Brexit. That is why Theresa May called it in the first place.

Her intention was to gain a large majority that would give her added clout in her EU negotiations.

But today’s result could mean an even smaller Conservative majority than she had already. With ‘Remain’ Scottish Nationalists, a handful of Remain Liberal Democrats and a few others, MPS chances of sabotaging the final Brexit terms could be greater.

If tonight’s result is a sweeping Tory majority there will also be interesting times ahead.

Jeremy Corbyn will stay as leader and there will be no further challengers to replace him. Labour will become a hardcore party of the Left as in many other European countries. There will be attempts to establish a Progressive Alliance supported by moderate Labour supporters, Liberal Democrats, Greens and even those of the left in the Conservative Party. Maybe a return of Tony Blair into the political arena?

Please not. If that happens I really would switch off the lights and emigrate.

Richard Scase is Professor at the University of Kent and a conference Keynote Speaker