Kentish Gazette Canterbury & District
‘Hope is on the horizon but we’re not there yet’
Falling Covid infection rates and hospital patient numbers have sparked hope an end to the latest lockdown could be in sight.
But the city council leader has warned that while “hope is on the horizon”, it is still far too early to lift restrictions. And local GPS are also urging caution, insisting people cannot allow themselves to become complacent.
The Government has previously said decisions on lockdown will be determined by factors such as the level of infections, hospitalisations, the success of the vaccine roll-out - and the emergence of new variants.
And in the Canterbury district, the statistics are now moving in the right direction. In the week up to January 28, the district’s infection rate fell 31.8% to 218.3 per 100,000 people.
This means cases have plummeted 67% from a peak of 657.8 on December 22 - and are now at the lowest level since November 12.
In east Kent’s hospitals, the number of Covid patients has also fallen dramatically since reaching a high of 460 on January 4.
There are now 215 people with coronavirus being treated - a drop of 53%. But the current number of Covid patients is still higher than the peak last spring.
The local leaders of the vaccine roll-out are also hopeful of hitting the target of inoculating the most vulnerable residents by the Government’s target of mid-february - as long as deliveries of the jabs arrive on time.
The number of Canterbury residents dying after contracting Covid is also starting to fall. Twenty-five deaths were recorded in the week up to
January 31, compared to 51 in the week up to January 17. Yet the stark figures also show 38.5% of the district’s total coronavirus deaths since the pandemic began occurred last month.
While the recent lockdown measures have undoubtedly helped dramatically reduce the spread of the virus, they have come at a high cost - to children’s education and local businesses forced to stay shut. Last week the Prime Minister said March 8 would be the earliest date pupils would return to school.
But the progress made in the fight against the virus - particularly the effectiveness of the Oxford jab in cutting transmission - has raised the question as to whether more restrictions should be eased next month. Canterbury City Council leader Ben Fitter-harding says he “absolutely” wants to see the high street return to normal - but thinks infection rates are still far too high to be thinking about lockdown being lifted yet.
“It’s just so great to see that everyone’s efforts are working and, combined with our vaccination programme, hope is growing that this lockdown will be the last,” he said. “That said, much caution is still needed. Reopening our economy too soon will be far more damaging than waiting until Covid is back down
to levels where we can manage it.
“High levels of transmission increase the risk of new variants that could be resistant to our vaccines and so, as a business owner myself, I can only appeal to everyone for their continued patience. “There is hope on the the horizon but we are not there yet.”
Cllr Fitter-harding admits the situation is “incredibly difficult” for anyone with a business. And the lack of trade in the city and towns is also hitting the council’s coffers. “The situation is bad,” he said.
“We never imagined that our council would be subject to this kind of loss of income.” He says the authority is likely going to have to use almost all its reserves to get through the crisis - but it will be able to cope “as long as we are able to reopen by the summer”.
He added: “My hope is that this summer will be a spectacular one for our district, with roaring trade across Canterbury, Whitstable, Herne Bay and our villages. But for now, if we want to keep that hope alive, we need to stay at home, save lives and protect the NHS.”
One factor which may squash hopes of lockdown being lifted is the spread of more infectious variants of Covid.
This week door-to-door tests were carried out in the ME15 area of Maidstone - and residents were told to “stay at home” - after cases of the South Africa strain were detected.
Dr John Ribchester, of Whitstable Medical Practice, said: “Assuming that the vaccine is effective against the Kent strain, and the new South African mutation, then I think we are getting into a good position, but it’s too soon to be absolutely certain because further mutation, as with winter flu, can happen.
“We don’t know if the current vaccines will be equally effective against any as yet unknown future mutations. “We’re definitely moving in the right direction, no question about that, but let’s not unlock the stable door too soon. You absolutely cannot allow yourselves to become complacent yet.” Leading Herne Bay GP Dr Jeremy Carter added: “We now hear the Kent variant has mutated again, so I think at the end of the day the key point is that with all that positivity - and we can’t take away from that, it’s a really important message - we still need to treat this virus with respect, particularly around social distancing, hand sanitising, face masks and so on.
“And certainly in the short to medium-term future, that should be part of our lives.”