Health chief Q&A – too early to say if virus outbreak has been contained...

STAFFORDSHIRE’S public health chief has warned that further outbreaks of the Indian covid variant could happen – but hopes that accelerating the vaccine roll-out will help cut the risk.

Thirty-two people linked to three schools in Leek have now tested positive for coronavirus, while a further three cases in the town have been confirmed through local surge testing.

Nearly 1,000 pupils were told to self-isolate at home due to the outbreak last week.

Forty of the cases have been identified as the variant of concern first found in India – now called the Delta variant by the World Health Organisation.

Dr Richard Harling, left, director of health and care at Staffordshire County Council, expects all the Leek cases will be confirmed as the Delta variant.

Here, Dr Harling answers some common questions about the Leek outbreak, the Indian variant, and what can be done to prevent further incidents:

Why has the Indian variant resulted in a new outbreak in Leek, despite the successful vaccine roll-out?

Dr Harling: “It looks like this new variant, which is now called the Delta variant, is more transmissable than the Kent variant, which was the variant that was predominating previously.

“I don’t think we have a precise figure but the scientific concensus is that it is around 50 per cent more transmissable.

“So it looks like the various control measures and the vaccination programme are enough to suppress the Kent variant, but they still allow this new variant to transmit.”

Have there been any serious cases in this outbreak?

Dr Harling: “There is some good news in that these cases are asymptomatic or mild so far, and that’s because they’re in younger people.

“At the moment we’re not seeing people affected who are particularly vulnerable.

“But obviously that is a risk – the more cases we get the more likely it is that someone who is older or has underlying conditions will be exposed. That’s why it’s important to contain this as soon as we can.

Has the Leek outbreak been contained?

“It’s a bit early to say. The best chance of containing it is making sure those people who are cases and contacts are isolated as required.

“Secondly, we have to identify any further cases, so we’ve got testing ongoing in the town. And thirdly, we have to try and speed up the vaccination programme as much as we’re allowed.

“The more people who are immune, the harder it will be for the virus to spread.

“I don’t think we know what the threshold is – we’re still learning about this new variant.

“But the general principle is that more immunity means less transmission.

“I think both doses are equally important. So the message for people is if you’re eligible for your first dose, go and get it.

“If you’ve had your first dose and are due your second, go and get that as well.

“It looks like one dose will help to prevent the spread, but it won’t be enough.”

Can we expect further outbreaks like this to happen in future, or will the vaccine programme prevent them?

Dr Harling: “The more people we vaccinate, the less likely that we will have these sorts of outbreaks.

“I’m not sure we’re going to reduce that likelihood to zero. Even when we’ve gone through all of the cohorts one to 12, which is down to 18, I still think we’ll have occasional outbreaks popping up.

“Hopefully it won’t be very many, but I think it’s going to be an ongoing challenge for us.

“I don’t think it’s something that’s going to disappear on June 21 or whenever.”

Given that most of the cases in Leek have involved teenage school pupils, should we extend the vaccine programme to under-18s?

Dr Harling: “I think the scientific community is still looking at this. The policy at the moment is to go down to 18.

“From what we’re seeing with this incident and others, it does appear that this mid-teenage demographic is particularly at risk. That’s partly because of their behaviours.

“That’s by no means to condemn them – they’re young and they like mixing, that’s what being that age is all about.

“So I think the government is probably going to have to look again at that policy and consider vaccinating down further – I think the age of 12 has been suggested. That looks pretty reasonable to me.

“With the best will in the world, we’re not going to get them to not mix with each other, that just goes against your nature at that age.

“If this age group were vaccinated you’d be much less likely to see these outbreaks, and therefore we wouldn’t be having to test the wider community and we wouldn’t be further compromising education.

“There’s relatively limited data about the vaccine in younger people.”