WHAT ARE OUR CHANCES OF COMING OUT OF TIER 3 NEXT WEEK?
LEICESTERSHIRE County Council’s director of public health has been assessing where the county stands in five key factors the Government will use when deciding if it can drop to Tier 2 restrictions before Christmas.
The Department of Health and Social Care has said it will review the measures on Wednesday.
The city and county are currently in Tier 3. A drop to Tier 2 could allow pubs, bars and restaurants to reopen in the run-up to Christmas.
Infection rates have been dropping across the county and are now at about the national average but director of public health Mike Sandys said there was good news on some but not all of the indicators the Government will use to make a decision:
1. The overall infection rate
Mr Sandys said: “Our rate in Leicestershire is down to 150 cases per 100,000 people.
“We have gone from well above the national average to being marginally below.”
However, Mr Sandys pointed out that 150 cases per 100,000 is still higher than the rate in Leicester in June that pushed the city into the UK’s first local lockdown.
2. Infection among over-60s
The over-60s are likely to suffer worse symptoms, and Mr Sandys said the rate in Leicestershire was around the national average.
He warned care home outbreaks could make a big difference to that if they occur.
3. Positivity
This is the percentage of positive tests coming from the number of overall test results.
Mr Sandys said that was about 10 per cent and “going in the right direction”.
4. Consistency of infection rates
Fluctuating infection rates will likely count against areas looking to drop a tier.
Mr Sandys said: “This time last week we were 40 per cent on the seven days before. Now it’s up a bit.
“We could be better but we’re okay.”
5. Pressure on the local NHS
The Government will look at patient pressure on Leicester’s hospitals which the director of public health said had increased again .
He said: “This week’s figures were looking better but only marginally below the peak of the first wave.
“The NHS pressure bit is probably the more worrying of the indicators.
“If you were doing a score card you would say we have three ‘goods’, one ‘average’ and one ‘maybe’.
“It’s better than what it was three weeks ago but is it enough?
“Do you need all five looking brilliant for someone to decide you can go down a tier? I don’t know. It’s a balance.”
Some county Tory MPs have argued that their constituencies should not be grouped in with Leicester when the government reviews its tier status next week.
But Mr Sandys thinks it is unlikely districts will be split from districts in this way.
He said: “If I were Chris Whitty (the chief medical officer) or the Joint Biosecurity Centre they would be keener on doing bigger geographies and I can understand why.
“It makes sense to go bigger because the virus doesn’t respect boundaries. It’s probably down to other people both political and higher up the chain than me that will balance those things.”