WHY CITY WON’T BLOW TOP FOUR SPOT
WHEN Leicester City fans checked the Premier League table after the latest round of fixtures, there will have been some concerned looks on their faces.
City suffered a bump on their road to the top four, though not an unexpected one, with defeat to Manchester City on Saturday, and several of the five teams in their rearview mirror gained ground.
Chelsea may have lost, and Spurs and Everton may have thrown away leads to draw, but Liverpool beat Arsenal at a canter and West Ham picked up another alarmingly impressive result against Wolves.
The gap between City and fifth place was reduced from seven to five points. You don’t need to be a mathematician to know that giving up two points to the chasing pack every week will see City out of contention.
Some of the worry will be the flashbacks from last season, when City, over the course of the second half of the campaign, lost a 14-point cushion inside the Champions League places. If it’s happened before, it’s not difficult to imagine it happening again.
After all, City were eight points clear of fifth at this stage last term. Now it’s only five. But let’s be clear: City would rather be where they are than where West Ham, Chelsea, Spurs, Liverpool, and Everton sit.
Here are five reasons to be confident there will be no case of deja vu.
1) Injuries won’t derail season
Ask Brendan Rodgers to put his finger on why City slipped out of contention last season and he would say injuries.
City had Ricardo Pereira, Ben Chilwell and James Maddison, below, missing for the run-in, Caglar Soyuncu joining them on the sidelines when he received a three-game ban.
At that point, City had no positive experiences of coping with player absences.
Their squad had been fully fit for the first half of the season and their form took a hit when Wilfred Ndidi was unavailable in the winter.
So when a handful of first-team stars were ruled out, City could not adjust, with performances and results significantly affected.
This season, City have been dealing with injuries from the off, with every regular starter bar Kasper Schmeichel and Youri Tielemans forced to sit out for a period of games at some point during the campaign.
While City will hope their injury luck turns for the run-in, even if it does not – and Soyuncu’s positive Covid test suggests it will not – they can still be backed to cope.
2) No evidence of stuttering form
Last term, City arrived at the final eight games having gained just nine points from their previous nine outings.
Despite losing to Man City, this season’s City have picked up 17 points from their last nine.
The stumble started well before the final few weeks of the campaign a year ago, but this time, there have been no periods of poor form.
No matter which table you look at, City are moving along steadily. In the six-game form table, they’re fourth, in the eight-game form table, they’re fourth, in the 10-game form table, they’re fifth.
City picked up just eight points from their final eight games last season. But check any eight-game period this campaign and the worst tally Rodgers’ men have been recorded is 11 points.
If that’s their total over this year’s final eight games, Chelsea would have to earn 16 points from a possible 24 – five wins and a draw – to catch them. That’s not easy.
3) No supercharged chasers
While the gap to fifth may be smaller despite City enjoying a better season – they are two points better off after 30 matches – there is no standout candidate looking to take their place. Sure, there are plenty of sides in the chasing pack that could challenge them, but none are in the form that Manchester United were a year ago.
Powered by Bruno Fernandes’ January arrival, United produced title-winning form to get past City, picking up 32 points from the 14 games the Portuguese playmaker featured in.
Nobody currently behind City is on that sort of run.
Aside from the Manchester clubs, the team in the best form over the past eight games are Chelsea.
From that period, they have earned 15 points. If they reproduce that over the next eight games, City only have to earn 11 – three wins and two draws – to stay ahead of them.
There may be a clutch of clubs just behind City, but none are moving at the pace United were a year ago.
4) They’ve been here before
While supporters may be worried about history repeating itself, that it has happened before should be some comfort. This City squad have the experience of giving up a top four spot and so will be better placed to avoid that happening again.
Rodgers admitted earlier this year that perhaps his players got a little excited at the thought of Champions League football and took their eye off the ball, but they will know they cannot do that this time.
As Rodgers has routinely pointed out, City are only in the top four if they are there when the final whistle is blown against Tottenham on May 23, so there is no place for complacency.
5) They know how to beat the big clubs
When calculating where City’s points are going to come from, most supporters are looking to this weekend’s clash with West Ham and the following four games against bottom-half clubs, treating the final trio of fixtures – against Manchester United, Chelsea, and Spurs – as write-offs.
But while City lost their last two games, against Tottenham and United, during last season’s disappointing finale, there is no guarantee it will happen again.
City have proven they are now capable of going toe-to-toe with the country’s elite and taking points off them.
They have 16 points from nine games against the big six this season, already seven more than last season, while they also defeated United in the FA Cup.
City would hope to have wrapped up a top four spot before those tricky final three fixtures, but they are not to be feared if they do still need to add to their tally.