‘On precipice of unprecedented increase in cases’
WARNINGS AS NEW STRAIN
LEICESTER is facing unprecedented pressure because of a surge in Omicron cases, a public health expert has warned politicians.
Consultant Rob Howard told a meeting at Leicester City Council this week that the new strain of coronavirus was spreading rapidly among the population.
He told the council’s overview select committee: “Two weeks ago, we measured it at about 1 per cent of all the cases, it’s now about 54 per cent. So it will be very, very soon that the vast majority of cases will be the new Omicron variant.
“We know that it’s much more transmissible. There is lots of uncertainty about severity. It’s unknown at the moment, but the indications are that it may be similar.
“We’re hoping it will be a bit less severe, but we don’t really know at the moment.
“In the past few weeks we’ve started to see the overall rates go up slightly, the current rate from today is actually up to 400 cases per 100,000 people per week. Two weeks ago it was 365.
“The rate for the over-60s has actually continued to come down slightly and the rate for our school age children, while still high, has also come down somewhat.
“But the rates for the 17 to 21 and 21 to 24 year-olds have almost doubled in the last two weeks.
“The overall picture on a superficial level gives perhaps a falsely reassuring picture. We are really on the precipice of an unprecedented increase in cases that we can expect to happen in the next few weeks along with the rest of the country.”
Mr Howard said that the Christmas holiday season was likely to spread the variant into the older and more vulnerable age groups.
He said: “It looks overall that the new variant is doubling every two or three days.
“I think it will slow down because people are changing their own behaviour and are voting with their feet in terms of not going to parties and so on.
“Nevertheless, we are in this festive period where families gather together, so there are significant concerns that the high rates in the younger age population will, as we’ve seen before, eventually translate into the older, more vulnerable groups.
He said he expected significant levels of staff absence through sickness or self-isolation, particularly among those on the frontline who cannot work from home, adding: “That’s a massive challenge for everyone.
“We think that because it’s expanding so rapidly, this next surge could also end quite rapidly.
“So in a matter of a month, a month-and-a-half, two months, we may well be through it and down the other side.
“But the damage that could be done in that period, the damages our hospitals are preparing for in terms of capacity, it’s unknown at this stage whether it will be at a level where they can cope or whether further measures might have to be taken nationally.
“There’s no doubt about it, this is a very very serious time and serious situation.”
Professor Ivan Browne, director of public health for the city council, told the Mercury people must continue to protect themselves. He said: “We are seeing an increase in the number of Omicron cases here, as elsewhere across the country, and our message remains the same – to ensure you take up the offer to get fully vaccinated and to follow the national guidance on face coverings, social distancing and socialising.
“I would be extremely cautious about making projections on the growth of cases, but we would certainly predict over the coming weeks we will see rates increase quite rapidly. “In our previous experience with the Alpha and Delta variants, rates in the city tended to peak slightly later than nationally, and may take longer to fall.”