Get ready for by-election
GERALD Kaufman’s death has added Manchester-Gorton to the list of by-election and election battlefields in Greater Manchester. The spotlight is already on Leigh and the mayoral election.
I write from the Potteries where I have just been involved in delivering Conservative leaflets in the Stoke Central by-election.
A lot depended on the Copeland and Stoke by-elections. As a result of them, both Labour and Ukip are fighting for survival and the Liberal Democrats are recovering.
Stoke is the capital of Brexitland. The area is the bastion of the leftbehind, with a high proportion of pensioners and unemployed-the precariat.
They were disappointed with the Labour Party, for which they had traditionally voted. Ukip’s hopes were high. Its leader was the candidate. But its nationallypublicised campaign imploded, partly for reasons connected with Paul Nuttall’s record. However, as they dismantled their Hanley centre the morning after the count, hardline Ukippers did not admit to despair. ‘I’ll be back’ expresses their mood.
Obviously Ukip will contest the Manchester seats. However optimistic the pronouncements, this might be their last chance. Who will be their candidates? Will Paul Nuttall risk another personal defeat? Would Manchester view him, as some Stokies did, as a ‘foreigner’? Demography is against Ukip. Both its party workers and its voters are in the autumn of their days.
The pressure on Labour is nearly as great. No seat is safe – not even the late Gerald Kaufman’s. Even if a seat is held – it might be by a humiliatingly small majority. Both Ukip and Labour are riven by internal feuds. The road to the next general election might be paved with by-elections fought in the grim and desperate spirit of Waterloo and Stalingrad and in effect confirming Mrs May’s hold on power.
So, as Stoke recovers from its moment of fame, let me advise Mancunians to expect anything from two-dozen to 40 leaflets through their doors and a mass invasion of journalists from the South.
Brace yourselves. Margaret Brown, Burslem