Five key marginals that might slide from Labour grasp
M.E.N. political editor Jennifer Williams looks at seats viewed as ‘in danger’ by veteran campaigners as General Election looms...
Fundamentals of election haven’t changed other than the shine has come off Theresa May Labour candidate
WITH just days to go before polling day, Labour are now racing to protect a string of Greater Manchester seats from Tory onslaught.
Activists and candidates are increasingly confident that the direst predictions made at the beginning of the campaign may not come to pass – but still expect Theresa May to win a majority.
Five marginals are being widely seen as those most likely to slip from Labour’s grasp. Bury South, Bolton North East, Worsley and Eccles South, Heywood and Middleton, and Oldham East and Saddleworth are all considered to be in danger by veteran campaigners.
However, in Stalybridge and Hyde – initially also considered a likely loss – activists are growing more relaxed.
Meanwhile in the student heartland of Manchester Withington, which the Liberal Democrats had been hoping to win back, Labour are now confident of victory.
Most Labour campaigners spoken to by the M.E.N believe the huge shift in opinion polls over the past couple of weeks – from a Tory landslide last month to some predictions of a Labour win or hung parliament – is not to be trusted.
But they are more comfortable that the meltdown originally predicted a month ago has been averted.
“The fundamentals of the election haven’t changed a great deal other than the shine has come off Theresa May, to say the least,” said one Labour candidate.
“Three or four weeks ago I’d have said we might have a problem in seats like Denton or Makerfield and the Tories thought that too – that places with less than a 10,000 majority outside of London, with a predominantly white working class base, were potentially at risk. “Now I think the edge of that wave is more like 5,000. In that sense it’s changed, but I don’t think the fundamentals have shifted.” By and large both Labour and Tory campaigners alike appear to see Bury South – which Labour holds with a majority of 4,922 – as the most likely to change hands, describing it as ‘knife-edge’ and ‘neck-andneck.’ Veteran incumbent Ivan Lewis faces the added problem of the fall-out from the ongoing anti-semitism row within the Labour party, including the continued suspension of Ken Livingstone.
Several experienced campaigners said the debate among Jewish voters remained ‘very live,’ with people struggling to decide whether a vote for Mr Lewis would add legitimacy to Jeremy Corbyn’s highly contentious handling of the row.
However, there had been a positive shift since Theresa May’s dementia tax u-turn, said one senior Labour source.
“There’s been a significant erosion in the Tory vote and strengthening of people who had been wavering Labour voters,” they said.
“It’s difficult to read the cumulative effect of that thought and most people think there could be under 1,000 votes in it, which would be unprecedented in the last 20 years.”
In Worsley and Eccles South, which Barbara Keeley holds with a majority of 5,946, no Ukip candidate is standing – potentially spelling trouble for Labour.
One Tory campaigner said it was looking ‘very close.’
“Labour clearly think so too, because they’re on their third set of national direct mail,” they added.
“If the Labour party believed the latest polls they wouldn’t be spending vast amounts of money sending direct mail.”
Jeremy Corbyn has been ‘completely absent’ from Labour mail-outs, they added, with Andy Burnham appearing on some instead.
“I can see why they’ve tried that but I wonder if it just highlights the fact the leader’s not on any of the leaflets.”
Labour figures also said Debbie Abrahams’ 6,002 majority was potentially in trouble in Oldham East and Saddleworth, with one describing the seat as ‘very vulnerable’ to the Tories.
Another flagged up potential problems in Heywood and Middleton, although Liz McInnes may be insulated by Ukip’s decision to stand a candidate, potentially eating into the Conservative vote.
Across the board campaigners report fewer worries for Jonathan Reynolds in Stalybridge and Hyde than at the start of the campaign, where several report response on the doorstep seemed ‘fine.’
And in Withington, originally considered a key Lib Dem target, Labour are now relaxed. Withington is no longer a problem,” said one, pointing out activists were diverted away towards Bury South several weeks ago. Another added: “Withington should be absolutely fine – it could be one of the few seats in the country to see a real swing towards Labour, the 2017 version of Cleggmania.”
Labour will now be anxiously striving to get the vote out across Greater Manchester, particularly among young people, amid worries that today’s bad weather could extend into the end of the week.