HS2 ‘under-estimated’, says watchdog
HS2 is over budget and behind schedule because its complexity and risks were under-estimated, according to the Whitehall spending watchdog.
The National Audit Office (NAO) warned that it is impossible to ‘estimate with certainty what the final cost could be’.
It published a report urging the Government and HS2 Ltd to be ‘transparent and provide realistic assessments’ in relation to the high-speed railway.
A Government-commissioned review led by former HS2 Ltd chairman Doug Oakervee leaked earlier this week stated that the project’s bill could reach £106 billion.
HS2 was allocated £56 billion in 2015. Phase One between London and Birmingham was due to open in 2026, but full services are now forecast to start between 2031 and 2036.
The NAO noted that the Department for Transport (DfT) set the available funding for the first phase in 2013, when there was only a ‘basic’ design for the project. It also found that HS2 Ltd failed to add enough contingency to its cost estimates after using a calculation method that was inappropriate.
The amount of contingency was not enough to cover ‘significant increases in cost’ which emerged as the design became more detailed and issues such as poor ground conditions came to light, the report stated.
Head of the NAO Gareth Davies said: “There are important lessons to be learned from HS2, not only for the Department for Transport and HS2 Ltd, but for other major infrastructure programmes. To ensure public trust, the Department and HS2 Ltd must be transparent and provide realistic assessments of costs and completion dates as the programme develops.”
A DfT spokeswoman said the department ‘supported this review and is already acting on many of its recommendations’.
Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has said the Government will make a decision on whether to go ahead with the project in “weeks rather than months”.
Some £8 billion has already been spent on HS2.